Gallium

tracked under Minerals ▸ Minor & strategic metals

state of play · Minerals

The DRC government reinstated a ban on copper concentrate and cobalt concentrate exports on August 6, sending copper to an all-time price record and compounding a simultaneously reported sulfuric acid supply collapse affecting smelter operations. The DRC holds approximately 70% of global cobalt reserves; CMOC, the world's largest cobalt producer, operates primarily there. The ban follows the 2026 DRC cobalt quota imposed earlier this year and is a reinstatement of an earlier restriction rather than a novel policy. Chinese smelters dependent on DRC concentrate face immediate sourcing disruption; the move escalates a pattern of export nationalism following Indonesia on nickel and Zimbabwe on lithium, reshaping how processing capacity is allocated globally.

The International Energy Agency warned on July 16 that full implementation of China's rare earth export restrictions could disrupt US$6.5 trillion of downstream production outside China, the most comprehensive market-risk assessment yet of Beijing's export-control regime. China's commerce ministry launched a cash-reward programme July 1 for informants reporting illegal rare-earth exports, adding a civilian enforcement layer to an architecture already spanning the Mineral Resources Law (June 15) and a 46-firm defence-procurement ban. MP Materials and USA Rare Earth were blacklisted June 22; MOFCOM Announcement No. 26 took effect July 1. India and Japan signed the UNICORN defence-materials deal July 2, the clearest allied response so far. NdPr metal ran 160% in four months to US$137/kg before correcting; European ex-China rare earth prices are at six times domestic Chinese levels. MP Materials is producing NdFeB magnets at Fort Worth under a US$400m DoD equity stake. Battery metals: lithium nearly doubled in Q1 2026; China suspended graphite export licences until at least November 2026, covering 97% of spherical graphite. Gallium reached US$2,269/kg in the West versus US$246/kg in China. The US Trump administration announced US$3 billion in government investment across domestic and allied critical minerals projects on August 7, explicitly linking the spending to rebuilding weapons stockpiles depleted during the US-Israel war on Iran and reducing dependence on Chinese processing; CNBC framed it as a defense-necessity measure; The National placed it within a broader multipolar realignment as multiple governments diversify away from Chinese supply chains.

Watch: whether CMOC and Glencore comply with the DRC ban or seek exemptions; which specific projects receive the US$3B and in which allied countries; whether the US investment triggers matching G7 minerals commitments; cobalt and copper spot price moves after the DRC ban; whether Chinese smelters invest in DRC-based refining capacity; IEA US$6.5T figure and allied procurement timelines; CRMA permitting pace; US 45X FEOC implementation.

A byproduct metal China produces at 98% of global supply, gallium is essential for military radar and 5G power chips, making it a lever in US-China export control disputes.

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Minor metals chokepoints: gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, platinum and palladium

Six metals underpinning semiconductors, defence alloys and autocatalysts where China or Russia controls supply, making export restrictions a primary geopolitical weapon.

·5 takes ·Jul 3

Germanium

Minor semiconductor metalloid recovered from zinc smelting, essential to fiber optics and infrared military optics; China controls roughly 60% of global refined output and imposed export controls in 2023.

·3 takes ·Jul 3

Gallium hit $2,269/kg and germanium $6,150/kg in the West as China's export controls created a permanent East-West price split

China's domestic gallium price is $246/kg; the Western spot price is nine times higher. Germanium's equivalent gap is 130%. A US-China trade truce suspended the US-specific ban until November 2026 but left the licensing regime intact

The Quiet Shift ·7 takes ·Jun 26

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