Russia launched a combined barrage of ballistic missiles and drones at Kyiv and surrounding Kyiv Oblast overnight on August 4-5, killing at least 17 people and wounding 44; Ukraine's air defences failed to intercept any of the ballistic missiles, and officials warned of critical shortfalls in Patriot-compatible interceptors as fires burned across the capital and its suburbs

Vladimir Putin announced sweeping changes to Russia's military command on August 5 at a meeting with Defence Ministry leadership; General Denis Lyamin was named the first commander of Russia's Drone Forces, a branch that Putin acknowledged does not yet formally exist; logistics services were merged; the reshuffle was presented as adaptation to lessons from the war in Ukraine

Russian crude oil refining averaged 3.6 million barrels per day in July 2026, the lowest since May 2002, Bloomberg data showed via Meduza; Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries and tankers drove the drop; at the same time Russia's federal budget deficit exceeded its full-year legal ceiling in just six months, large companies began cutting investment despite Putin's calls for a spending surge, and monthly company closures tripled to 12-15 thousand

Russia launched 30 ballistic missiles at Kyiv on August 1, killing at least ten people including a police officer on duty and injuring at least 28 across five districts; Ukraine's air defences intercepted some, but officials said Patriot-compatible interceptors are running low and urged urgent allied resupply; the attack came less than 48 hours after a separate major Russian strike on Ukraine

Russia's President Vladimir Putin told Russian Navy officers on July 26 that he was 'confident' Ukraine would 'sooner or later' lose its western territories, which he described as lands Stalin gifted to Soviet Ukraine after WWII; Poland's Foreign Ministry called it 'cynical' disinformation designed to split Warsaw from Kyiv; Hungary and Romania, also named, have not responded

Russia's President Vladimir Putin traveled unannounced to the Irkutsk Aviation Plant in Siberia on July 24, inspecting an upgraded Yak-130M combat trainer described by its test pilot as carrying advanced onboard systems, a modern radar and air-to-air and air-to-surface missiles; the same plant produces the MC-21 airliner, which the Moscow Times describes as having faced a decade of production delays; state media including TASS did not report the visit until the afternoon

Russia's State Duma passed legislation on July 22 that cuts off exiled anti-war citizens from online banking, real estate transactions, and consular services, formalising into law the extrajudicial account freezes that authorities had already been applying to emigre cultural figures through a secret interagency list

Russia's leadership has ruled out returning occupied parts of Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts to Ukraine in any peace settlement, intending to keep them as buffer zones, while pressing to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk, according to sources familiar with the Kremlin cited by Bloomberg on July 22

Ukrainian drones struck logistics hubs of Wildberries, Russia's largest online retailer, in Nevinnomyssk and Krasnodar overnight on July 22, causing large fires and injuring several people; separate strikes on occupied Crimea triggered blackouts across the peninsula and a Russian MiG-29 fighter jet was struck at Kursk's Khalino airfield

Russia's lower house of parliament approved amendments on July 20 ahead of a scheduled second reading on July 22 of a bill that would block Russians living abroad, prosecuted under laws on foreign agents or 'discrediting' the military, from selling property in Russia, making bank transfers, or accessing consular services

Russia's Defense Ministry said its armed forces hit military-industrial and energy facilities in Kyiv and surrounding areas; Ukrainian authorities reported eight dead and 48 injured in the Kyiv region

The annual China-Russia naval exercise kicked off on July 6 at the Chinese port of Qingdao with warships and submarines from both fleets, timed to coincide with China's first submarine-launched ballistic missile test since 1982 and the NATO summit in Ankara

Ukraine's military claims Russia's June casualty rate of nearly 40,000, far above its monthly recruitment capacity, is unsustainable; the ISW calculates that at Russia's current pace it would take 14 years to fully capture Donetsk Oblast

Russia's General Staff told Putin on July 3 that its forces had taken the Donetsk fortress city; Ukraine's military denied the claim the next day, with Zelensky calling it 'another Russian lie' and geolocation showing troops from both sides interspersed inside the city

Russian General Gerasimov reported the town's fall to President Putin on July 3; Ukraine has not confirmed the claim; Kostyantynivka sits between Kramatorsk and Sloviansk and is a key logistics node in northern Donetsk

The two-day Ankara summit ratified Europe's largest Ukraine commitment, introduced China formally into NATO's threat framework, and was interrupted by Iran striking three ships and the US hitting 80+ Iranian targets, the largest exchange since the January ceasefire

At least 22 killed, 90+ injured; record use of ballistic missiles against the capital, with Zelenskyy cutting short his Ireland visit and Poland scrambling jets

The alliance's 32 members convened in Ankara on July 7 after Trump held separate calls with Putin and Zelenskyy on July 5; South Korea's President Lee also attended; NATO Secretary-General Rutte urged members not to be 'naive' about China's military build-up

Zelenskyy said Ukrainian drones hit the Dubna communications hub, 310 miles inside Russia, used to coordinate forces on the front line, in the third strike on a Russian SATCOM facility and the second in a week; a six-month-old baby died after a drone struck a house in Yegoryevsk

In an interview aired Sunday on Russian state television, Putin said Ukraine had proposed a mutual suspension of deep strikes and dismissed it, calling Russian long-range strikes 'more destructive' and 'catastrophic' for Kyiv's depleted forces

A 15-aircraft formation including Tu-95MS and H-6 bombers, with tankers, AWACS and electronic-warfare jets, flew a six-hour circuit on June 27; Japan and South Korea scrambled fighters and lodged formal protests, South Korea summoning both embassies.

An unannounced meeting on Russian-Belarusian relations and 'regional security', after Kyiv forced Minsk to switch off Russian drone-guidance repeaters

A decree signed this week raises basic military instruction from roughly a quarter of school hours to half, the most extensive militarisation of Russian civilian education since the Soviet era

Ukraine's wartime president since 2019, Zelensky transformed from TV comedian to the most visible leader in Europe's largest land war since 1945.

Eight heads of government commanding nuclear arsenals, G7 institutions, and the world's largest economies whose bilateral signals move markets and wars.

This beat covers five leaders whose incapacity, death, or contested transition would most immediately reshape active wars, nuclear policy, and the international order.

Drone strikes on refineries trigger the worst fuel shortage on the Black Sea peninsula since 2014; the Kremlin and independent press describe it in opposite terms

Sobyanin confirmed 39 drones downed over the capital by 5:45 AM local time; the first wave arrived at 2:30 AM

The board eased just 25bp against a 50bp consensus, citing a fuel-price spike and a war budget that keeps policy tight

At a 35th-anniversary summit in Kazan, ASEAN and Russia adopt four cooperation documents; the Philippines' Marcos co-chairs even as he leans on Washington

Russia's spring-summer push around Pokrovsk grinds; Putin admits the drone war is hurting the economy and vows to bolster air defences

Ukraine reaches 1,500 km deep: June 24 strike on Orenburg gas complex (45 bn m³/yr, Russia's only helium plant) and Dubna satellite comms centre; Russia strikes Ukraine's grid in return

Saudi guest of honour, a US delegation back after a decade, and a president conceding 'risks of stagnation' while Ukrainian strikes shadow his hometown forum

Moscow leans wholly on the Trump–Anchorage framework, demands Ukraine stop its advance, and tells Kyiv to sign before any meeting

After Abu Dhabi and Geneva rounds put territory on the table, June brings a 185-for-185 swap and duelling summit venues, but no leaders' meeting

With Urals near $40 the deficit forecast balloons toward ~3% of GDP or worse; one estimate sees a $25–30bn revenue shortfall, the lowest monthly oil tax take since 2022