Russia launched a combined barrage of ballistic missiles and drones at Kyiv and surrounding Kyiv Oblast overnight on August 4-5, killing at least 17 people and wounding 44; Ukraine's air defences failed to intercept any of the ballistic missiles, and officials warned of critical shortfalls in Patriot-compatible interceptors as fires burned across the capital and its suburbs

Russia launched 30 ballistic missiles at Kyiv on August 1, killing at least ten people including a police officer on duty and injuring at least 28 across five districts; Ukraine's air defences intercepted some, but officials said Patriot-compatible interceptors are running low and urged urgent allied resupply; the attack came less than 48 hours after a separate major Russian strike on Ukraine

Russia launched its largest overnight barrage in weeks on July 30, killing at least ten civilians and wounding more than 50 across Ukraine; a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile crossed into eastern Poland, a NATO member, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed it likely crashed there, triggering notifications to NATO allies and a fresh Zelenskyy push for accelerated Western air-defence deliveries

A Russian missile violated Polish airspace and landed in a field in eastern Poland's Lublin region before dawn on July 30, during a mass Russian barrage on Ukraine; NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte condemned the airspace violation and said the alliance would 'defend its territory'; Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said there was 'no reason to think Poland was targeted'; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky blamed 'insufficient or delayed' air defense supplies for deaths in Ukraine during the same barrage

France held its July 14 national day parade with troops and warplanes from partner countries across Europe, and Ukrainian soldiers marching alongside them; French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at what Macron described as his tenth and last Bastille Day parade as president, with a record nearly 6,700 troops, 98 aircraft, 31 helicopters, and 315 vehicles on the traditional route from the Arc de Triomphe to the Place de la Concorde

Ukraine and nine European nations, including France, Germany, the UK, and seven others, announced the Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition on July 13 in Paris at a Coalition of the Willing summit hosted by France's President Emmanuel Macron; the ten countries committed to build a shared anti-ballistic missile capacity for Europe under the Freya project, as more than 25 heads of state gathered at the Hôtel des Invalides on the eve of Bastille Day; the group also discussed a €70 billion support package for Ukraine

Turkish newspaper Hürriyet, citing senior defence columnist Abdulkadir Selvi, reported on July 10 that Turkey had already completed the sale of its Russian-made S-400 systems to a Gulf state, most likely the UAE or Qatar; an official announcement was expected the same day; analysts and Greek media said the sale could reopen negotiations for Turkey to obtain US-made F-35 jets, from which Ankara has been excluded since 2019

Ukraine struck oil depots and refineries in at least three Russian regions and set two oil tankers ablaze in the Sea of Azov overnight July 8-9, with Zelenskyy calling the campaign his 'long-range sanctions' on Russia; CNBC reported NATO allies are examining a US$40 billion counter-drone investment plan in response to Ukraine's expanding deep-strike capability

The United States launched new airstrikes against Iran early Thursday, and Tehran responded by targeting Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan, a crossfire that again threatened the June 2026 interim deal; the IRGC said it fired 10 missiles at Jordan's Al-Azraq military air base; NATO chief Mark Rutte called US attacks 'absolutely necessary' as Trump threatened a naval blockade and to 'take over' Kharg Island; both sides accused the other of violating the June memorandum of understanding

US Central Command launched additional airstrikes against Iran on July 8 to 'further degrade Iran's ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz'; military analysts described the new strikes as significantly stronger than the July 7 initial retaliation; Iran's IRGC escalated by targeting US Navy warships; the US reinstated oil sanctions

US President Donald Trump said at the NATO summit in Ankara on July 8 that the June 2026 memorandum to end the Iran war is 'over' and dealing with Tehran a 'waste of time'; Trump threatened to hit Iran 'very hard again tonight' and to target infrastructure; Iran responded by threatening a complete halt to nuclear talks

US President Trump said he would 'consider' allowing Turkey to buy F-35 fighter jets and that the US would lift sanctions on Ankara, a bilateral announcement on the first day of the NATO summit in Turkey; Turkey's President Erdogan claimed Trump had promised five specific jets; if confirmed, it ends Turkey's exclusion from the program since 2019

The 36th NATO summit in Ankara concluded July 8 with Europe and Canada committing €70 billion per year to Ukraine for 2026-2027, the US authorizing Ukraine to produce Patriot air-defense missiles, and the summit communique naming China's nuclear build-up alongside Russia as a structural security concern for the first time in NATO history

France announced a Coalition of the Willing summit in Paris on July 13 bringing together at least 25 heads of state, with Ukrainian President Zelensky and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte confirmed as attendees; the coalition has grown to 37 nations and the Elysee said planning for post-ceasefire security guarantees is still underway

The two-day Ankara summit ratified Europe's largest Ukraine commitment, introduced China formally into NATO's threat framework, and was interrupted by Iran striking three ships and the US hitting 80+ Iranian targets, the largest exchange since the January ceasefire

Ankara Governorate imposed a province-wide assembly ban from July 1-15 covering the NATO summit on July 7-8; Amnesty International reported at least 225 people including academics, lawyers and an LGBTQ activist detained in pre-summit sweeps

Rome refuses a clause in the Ankara summit declaration committing to 'at least comparable' aid into 2027, leaving the paragraph in brackets ahead of the July 7-8 summit; Germany pushed hardest for the two-year signal

The alliance's 32 members convened in Ankara on July 7 after Trump held separate calls with Putin and Zelenskyy on July 5; South Korea's President Lee also attended; NATO Secretary-General Rutte urged members not to be 'naive' about China's military build-up

PM Mishustin signed an order June 30 closing seven border rail checkpoints with three NATO members effective July 1, days before the NATO summit in Ankara; no reason was given and the Foreign Ministry was instructed to notify all three governments

Ukraine formally contracted 16 new-build Saab Gripen E multirole aircraft on 30 June 2026 in a SEK 24.6bn deal financed through an EU loan facility, with deliveries due 2029-2030, and Sweden simultaneously pledged 16 used Gripen C/D jets from its active air force for earlier handover

High Representative Kaja Kallas, Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, and Home Affairs Commissioner Magnus Brunner visited Turkey on June 29-30 in a coordinated signal of intent; meetings covered accession progress, customs union, migration, and Ukraine ahead of the July 7-8 NATO Ankara summit.

The Starmer government published its Defence Investment Plan on June 30, committing £298 billion over 2026-27 to 2029-30, averaging £3.8 billion per year above previous plans, with naval shipbuilding, long-range missiles and space as priority areas; IFS flagged that around £1.2 billion per year of the increase has no identified funding source

Merz, Macron, Meloni, Starmer and Tusk meet in Berlin to harden NATO's European pillar before Ankara, sidelining Madrid over the 5% target

In a White House meeting on June 25, Trump publicly blamed NATO allies for not joining the Iran war; Secretary General Rutte defended members by noting Europe hosted 4,000-5,000 US aircraft

The State Department formally notified Congress of its intent to sell roughly 80 GE Aerospace F110 turbofans to Turkey for early KAAN production models; the administration proceeded over congressional objections tied to Ankara's retention of the Russian S-400 system, and ahead of the NATO Ankara summit in July

The ongoing military build-up by Russia, NATO, and partner states in the Arctic, driven by climate-opened sea routes, vast hydrocarbon reserves, and nuclear-posture stakes.

The UK's largest defence company and Europe's biggest arms manufacturer, BAE Systems underpins Britain's naval, air, and munitions programmes while generating roughly 40 per cent of revenue from US Pentagon contracts.

Russia-led post-Soviet military alliance of six states formed in 2002 and headquartered in Moscow, losing coherence as Armenia defects and Russia's Ukraine war strains collective commitments.

Formal defence alliances and technology pacts across NATO, AUKUS, the Quad, the SCO and the CSTO, and the spending commitments that determine whether guarantees hold.

The NATO framework requiring member states to share defence costs, sharpened at the 2025 Hague Summit into a pledge for all 32 allies to reach 5% of GDP by 2035.

The 45th and 47th President of the United States, Trump is the only modern leader to win non-consecutive terms; his second administration, which began January 20, 2025, has restructured US trade, executive authority, and military posture at a pace that has reshaped the international order.

Poland's Prime Minister since December 2023, Tusk built a pro-EU coalition that ended eight years of PiS rule but now faces a cohabitation president issuing record-breaking vetoes.

France's president since 2017, Macron is the EU's de facto diplomatic lead on Ukraine, strategic autonomy and European defence, entering his constitutionally final year in office.

The EU's project to build an independent defence-industrial base and reduce strategic dependencies, anchored in the 2022 Strategic Compass and mobilising up to €800 billion through 2030.

The measure of armed forces' ability to execute assigned missions, a gap between US and European defence budgets and deployable capability reshaping NATO policy and straining frontline forces.

The US and NATO policy of positioning forces close to adversaries' borders, primarily in Eastern Europe, now under review as Washington conditions future deployments on allied compliance.

Italy's first female Prime Minister leads a far-right coalition from 2022, shaping EU defence, the Ukraine war, and Italian politics heading into a contested 2027 election.

Multinational war games rehearse combined operations and signal deterrence; RIMPAC, NATO exercises, and China's PLA drills around Taiwan set the world's security tempo in 2026.

Turkey's president since 2014 who centralized executive power through a 2017 constitutional referendum, and NATO's most consequential yet contested member into 2026.

Russia's president since 1999, Vladimir Putin is directing the full-scale war in Ukraine, commanding the world's largest nuclear arsenal, and managing a wartime economy under an ICC arrest warrant.

High Representative Kaja Kallas, Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, and Internal Affairs Commissioner Magnus Brunner spent June 29-30 in Ankara meeting Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and two other ministers, the highest-level EU visit since Turkey's accession talks stalled, timed eight days before the Ankara NATO summit

Rutte met Trump June 24 ahead of the July 7-8 Ankara summit; US anger at allies who refused to join the Iran campaign; 5% GDP defence target being pushed

France, the UK, Italy and Poland join Germany to coordinate Ukraine, Iran and burden-sharing

Belgium confirmed on 26 March 2026 that its 2025 defence budget reached 2% of gross domestic product, the first time the country has met the NATO target since joining the alliance; the De Wever government has committed to a €34bn Strategic Vision for 2026-2034 targeting 2.5% of GDP by 2034 and 3.5% by 2035