A Reuters poll of economists published August 3 shows consensus for a fourth consecutive 25bp cut by Brazil's central bank, which would bring the Selic benchmark rate to 14.00%; market analysts trimmed their 2026 year-end Selic forecast for the first time since March, reflecting persistent inflation risks that could slow the easing path after August
Brazil's autonomous central bank sets the Selic rate and targets 3% inflation; one of the world's highest real rates makes its decisions a bellwether for emerging-market monetary policy.
Brazil's three-term president and declared 2026 fourth-term candidate who shaped Latin American labor politics and social policy over five decades.
A third straight quarter-point cut paired with a hawkish communiqué, election-year fiscal stimulus and El Niño flagged as upside risks