France convenes Coalition of the Willing in Paris on July 13, with Zelensky and NATO chief Rutte attending

Summary

France announced a "Coalition of the Willing" summit in Paris on July 13 and 14, bringing together at least 25 heads of state and government, the Elysee Palace confirmed on July 10. Ukrainian President Zelensky and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte are confirmed attendees; German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is also attending. The coalition has grown to 37 nations, with France citing growing transatlantic unity and improved battlefield conditions. The summit runs into France's Bastille Day on July 14, with coalition members invited to attend. The agenda includes countering Russia's shadow fleet, new military-capability initiatives, industry mobilization, and an expected announcement of joint coalition exercises. Planning for post-ceasefire security guarantees remains underway, the Elysee said, with the January 2026 Paris Declaration's commitments contingent on a ceasefire Russia has not agreed to.

The split

Russia's state media frames the coalition as provocation rather than deterrence: TASS this week described the EU as having transformed "into a military bloc against the ongoing Ukrainian conflict" and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called coalition statements "confrontational." The Western fault line runs on troops: only France and the UK have formally committed to deploying forces after a ceasefire; Germany hasn't made that commitment; the US won't send soldiers, with US President Trump saying so explicitly after the Ankara summit. In Eastern Europe, Poland and Czechia back the coalition hard; Hungary's new government under PM Peter Magyar is more cooperative than Viktor Orban was, but Zelensky still had to ask Budapest last week not to block Ukraine's EU accession; Slovakia aligns differently.

By the numbers

• 37, coalition nations as of July 10
• 2, nations formally committed to post-ceasefire troop deployment (France and UK)
• 25+, heads of state and government expected in Paris on July 13
• 35+, Russian shadow-fleet tankers struck by Ukraine's drones in 96 hours (July 7-10)
• ~40,000, Russian troops killed in June 2026 (Ukrainian military estimate, per Al Jazeera)
• 0, durable ceasefires reached since US President Trump's 3-day pause in May 2026

Why it matters

The Paris meeting is the largest Coalition of the Willing gathering to date, at 37 nations, and comes immediately after the NATO Ankara summit, keeping Ukraine diplomacy on a continuous track. The security-guarantee framework in the January 2026 Paris Declaration is legally and politically binding, but activates only after a ceasefire, and Russia has not agreed to one on Western terms. France is positioning itself as the central host for post-ceasefire architecture, a role that gives Paris significant influence over what any settlement looks like.

What to watch

• Whether Monday's session produces a 3rd nation formally committing post-ceasefire ground forces beyond France and the UK
• Whether Macron's announced joint coalition exercises become a standing operational mandate or remain aspirational
• Whether Russia signals any diplomatic response to the Bastille Day framing of the July 14 session
• Whether the shadow-fleet drone campaign (35+ tankers in 96 hours) materially erodes Russian oil revenues before the summit