Frontex data show a 71% fall in Balkans route detections in the first five months of 2024, a trend that continued into 2025-26, as human rights organizations document ongoing violence at Croatian borders and drownings on the Serbia-Bosnia frontier

IOM's March 2026 displacement tracking survey of 763 migrants at reception and transit points across Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, and Bulgaria found that 68% aimed for Germany or other EU destinations, 42% cited protection needs rather than economic migration as the primary reason for departure, and average journey time from origin country to the Balkans exceeded 18 months; route activity persisted despite a 40%+ decline in Western Balkans irregular arrivals to the EU since the peak years of 2021-2022