Tigray's administration accused Addis Ababa on August 3 of launching a new offensive after fighting erupted on Saturday in western Tigray, while Ethiopia's government said the TPLF was mobilizing for armed confrontation; both sides deny provoking the clashes; the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement is at risk

The EU Delegation to Ethiopia warned on June 28 that the TPLF's door-to-door military roundups and new parallel government breach the 2022 Pretoria peace deal; the TPLF denies compulsory recruitment

Ethiopia faces three simultaneous insurgencies, Fano in Amhara, the OLA in Oromia, and the TPLF standoff in Tigray, while edging toward interstate war with Eritrea.

Fighting between Fano militias and federal forces hit 22+ districts across nine Amhara zones in mid-June; Addis pushed June parliamentary elections in disputed Tigray areas over TPLF objections

Addis has redeployed heavy weaponry and mechanised units to Afar within striking distance of Eritrea's Assab port; Abiy's Red Sea ambition and a fractured TPLF turn an old enmity into a powder keg