Ukraine-Russia War
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, begun February 24, 2022, is the largest armed conflict in Europe since 1945 and the defining fault line between Russia and the Western alliance.
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What it is
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine is the largest interstate armed conflict in Europe since 1945. Launched on February 24, 2022, the invasion followed eight years of lower-intensity conflict rooted in Russia's 2014 seizure of Crimea and armed support for separatists in Ukraine's Donbas region. The core contest is territorial and political: Russia seeks to prevent Ukraine from aligning with NATO and the EU; Ukraine seeks to recover occupied territory and secure durable Western security guarantees. As of July 2026, the war is in its fifth year with no ceasefire in sight.
History
Russia seized Ukraine's Crimean peninsula and backed armed separatists in the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in 2014, producing a frozen conflict that killed roughly 14,000 people over eight years. The full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022 opened from Russian, Belarusian, and occupied-Donbas territory simultaneously. An early Russian drive on Kyiv collapsed by late March 2022 after stiff Ukrainian resistance. The UN General Assembly voted 141–5 on March 2, 2022 demanding Russia's immediate withdrawal (Resolution ES-11/1). Russia formally annexed four Ukrainian oblasts (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson) by presidential decree in September 2022; a subsequent General Assembly resolution condemned the annexation 143–5. The International Court of Justice indicated provisional measures in March 2022 ordering Russia to suspend military operations; Moscow ignored the order. Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia failed to breach Russian defensive lines. Russia captured Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast in February 2024 and continued incremental advances through 2025. The ICJ ruled it had jurisdiction in February 2024; Russia's counter-claims were admitted in December 2025 and the case remains at the merits stage.
Current state
Russia controls approximately 20% of Ukraine's internationally recognised territory as of July 2026, including Crimea and substantial portions of the four annexed oblasts. Frontlines are broadly static, with Russia making slow, costly gains in eastern Ukraine. On July 2, 2026, Russia launched its single largest attack of the war: 74 missiles and 496 drones in an 11-hour overnight barrage that killed 25 civilians in Kyiv and wounded more than 80 (Russia fires 74 missiles and 496 drones at Kyiv in one of the largest attacks of the war). Ukraine's Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov wrote to 40 partner countries requesting Patriot interceptor transfers; Ukraine requires roughly 2,000 per year but received only about 600 since 2022. Russia's planned military budget for 2026 is 14.9 trillion roubles (6.3% of GDP), down from 16 trillion roubles (7.5% of GDP) in 2025 but subject to in-year amendment as oil revenues fluctuate. Ukraine's military spending reached US$84.1 billion in 2025, equal to 40% of GDP. On July 1, 2026, Ukraine opened controlled weapons exports to 27 partner countries for the first time since the invasion began (Ukraine opens controlled weapons exports for the first time since the 2022 invasion).
Relationships
Western governments supply Ukraine with weapons, intelligence, and financing. The US has provided Patriot air-defence systems, HIMARS rocket artillery, and F-16 fighters; its Patriot stockpiles are strained by concurrent operations elsewhere. The EU enacted its 21st sanctions package against Russia in 2026. Russia is resupplied by North Korea (ammunition and troops) and Iran (Shahed drones, a key component of escalating mass strikes including Russia kills 24 in mass strike on Ukraine, hitting Kyiv Pechersk Lavra and Dovzhenko Film Studios). China maintains formal neutrality while providing dual-use goods and diplomatic cover at the UN Security Council. Poland has deepened military coordination with Ukraine through drone-sharing arrangements (Poland blocks MiG-29 transfer to Ukraine after Kyiv refuses to share drone technology) while countering Russian hybrid operations on its own soil (Poland expels 11 over Russia-funded scheme to pay Ukrainian refugees to protest against Kyiv). Russia's government rejected limits on Ukrainian deep-strike capability in June 2026 (Putin rejects Ukraine proposal to halt long-range strikes, says Kyiv aims to save itself not make peace).
What to watch
ICJ merits hearings on the genocide-convention case will test both parties' competing legal theories on the pre-2022 Donbas conflict. NATO membership for Ukraine remains formally deferred. The reparations mechanism backed by approximately US$300 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets has not yet produced disbursements. Ukraine's new defence-export programme will test whether a wartime economy can become a supply chain for partner militaries. Russia's 2026 military budget may be amended upward if oil revenues recover. Frontline activity across eastern Ukraine shows no sign of movement toward a negotiated settlement as of early July 2026.