Nine months into US-brokered ceasefire, Israel controls nearly 70% of Gaza, up from 50% before the truce
A new NPR analysis finds that Israel's military has expanded its territorial control within the Gaza Strip from roughly 50% at the time of the ceasefire to nearly 70% nine months later, as Israeli forces have pushed deeper into areas that were nominally covered by the truce, with Palestinians paying a deadly price in the expanded zones
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developments
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Hamas dissolved its government on July 6, handing power to the UN-backed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). The committee remains in Cairo; Israel has not permitted it to enter Gaza. Day 1,000 of the war (July 2) was marked with Gaza's Government Media Office reporting 80% Israeli territorial control and 90% of the strip destroyed.
Summary
Israel controls nearly 70% of the Gaza Strip, up from roughly 50% at the time of the US-brokered ceasefire nine months ago, according to NPR's analysis of aid-organisation maps. Netanyahu set that figure himself in May, telling an audience his directive to the IDF was "first, 70%." Gaza's Government Media Office counts the Israeli footprint at 80%, a higher figure that includes access-restricted zones. The October 2025 ceasefire permitted Israel to remain along the "yellow line," which covered roughly 53% of the strip; by March 2026, a new "orange line" had added 11 more points. Hamas dissolved its Gaza governing body on July 6 and offered to hand power to a UN-backed technocratic committee (NCAG), but Israel has not permitted that committee to enter Gaza. Trump's peace plan, which calls for Israeli withdrawal, has stalled, with reports of mounting friction between Trump and Netanyahu.
The split
The number itself is contested, and where you live determines which one you read. US outlets, including NPR, use the 70% figure, derived from Israeli officials' own statements and aid-organisation access maps. Gaza's Government Media Office, cited by Al Jazeera, puts the figure at 80%, counting access-restricted zones that residents cannot enter. The Times of Israel, reporting from within Israel, framed the May 28 directive differently from US outlets: Netanyahu's own words, "well beyond terms of the truce," appeared in the Israeli headline, whereas US coverage treated the expansion as an unexplained fact rather than an admitted policy. Within Israel, the coalition is fractured. Netanyahu's far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said the Gaza plan "will end in tears," meaning he thinks it concedes too much. Polls reported by Middle East Eye show most Israelis rate Netanyahu poorly; Smotrich and Ben Gvir are even less popular. Netanyahu is positioned between a Trump peace framework that demands withdrawal and coalition partners who read any withdrawal as capitulation. Gisha, an Israeli civil-society NGO, mapped the technical gap between the yellow and orange lines, documenting how Israeli military maps shared with aid groups show the expansion that was never announced publicly. The UN Humanitarian Country Team issued a joint statement warning the shifting lines endanger civilians and restrict aid, a framing absent from Israeli official communications. Gaza's governance split follows the same pattern: Hamas dissolved its government and the NCAG committee waits in Cairo, but whether Israel's refusal to let it in reads as blocking reconstruction or maintaining security depends entirely on which press you read.
By the numbers
- 53%, Israeli military control at the October 2025 ceasefire yellow line.
- 64%, Israeli-coordinated access after the March 2026 orange line was shared with aid groups (Gisha).
- ~70%, NPR's July 2026 estimate of Israeli control, based on aid-organisation maps and Israeli official statements.
- 80%, Gaza Government Media Office figure for Israeli territorial seizure as of July 2, 2026 (Al Jazeera).
- ~200, Palestinians killed by Israeli forces near the shifting yellow and orange lines during the ceasefire (UN OCHA).
- 1,092, Palestinians killed across Gaza since the ceasefire began in October 2025 (Al Jazeera / Gaza health ministry).
- 73,066+, total Palestinians killed since October 7, 2023 (Gaza health ministry, as of July 2026).
Why it matters
A ceasefire that permits one party to expand its territorial footprint by 17 percentage points beyond the agreed line challenges the basic premise of the truce framework. Netanyahu's May 28 statement, publicly admitting a directive to seize 70%, was notable for its candour: the expansion was not a battlefield outcome but an announced objective, set above the ceasefire text's terms. Gaza's governance vacuum deepens the same pattern. Hamas has removed itself from administration; the replacement body cannot enter. The Palestinian legislative elections decreed for November 28 are scheduled for territory in which the party that won the last elections dissolved itself and the body meant to replace it cannot reach the polling places.
What to watch
- Whether Israel permits the NCAG governance committee to enter Gaza from Cairo; this is the clearest test of whether the ceasefire's political framework is still operative.
- Which territorial line Israel holds as talks over the plan's next phase resume: 70, 64, or 53 each represents a different baseline for any withdrawal or reconstruction.
- Smotrich and Ben Gvir's vote on any coalition agreement that includes Israeli withdrawal; either can bring down the government.
- Trump's posture: whether the reported friction with Netanyahu translates into public US pressure on the 70% expansion or remains private.