Brent falls to $74 as Gulf exports restart and Iran sanctions waiver holds
Saudi Ras Tanura resumes tanker loadings for the first time since March; Brent is now 37% below its war peak
Summary
Brent crude settled at $73.74 a barrel on 24 June, down 4.33% in a single session and 37% below its March peak above $118. Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura terminal is reloading tankers for the first time since the Strait of Hormuz closure in March; buyers report simultaneous offers from the Gulf and Africa. The IEA June report downgraded 2026 global demand by 700 kb/d year-on-year, as elevated fuel prices suppress consumption. US Cushing stockpiles remain critically low at roughly 19 million barrels. General License X, issued 22 June per the US issues 60-day Iran oil sanctions waiver, gives Iranian crude a 60-day dollar-clearing pathway.
Why it matters
Each $10/bbl fall in Brent frees roughly $8-12 bn in annual import costs for net-importer economies including India, Turkey and Egypt. Russia's fiscal revenues fall further as export volumes stay below pre-war levels, compounding pressure from the Orenburg strikes. The 60-day waiver expires 21 August, so the recovery is provisional on Geneva talks holding.
What to watch
- Whether Brent stabilises below $75 or rebounds if the IAEA inspection dispute stalls the Geneva process
- Saudi ramp-up pace at Ras Tanura and other Gulf producer restart timelines
- Cushing stockpile rebuild trajectory, which determines US gasoline price relief