Brent falls to $72 as Gulf exports recover, then rebound on IRGC Bahrain attack
Brent settled at $71.99 on June 26, its lowest since late February, before war-risk buyers stepped in after IRGC drone strikes on Bahrain and a second Hormuz tanker hit on June 27
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Summary
Brent crude settled at $71.99 a barrel on June 26, its lowest close since late February and down 4.34% on the session, as Hormuz shipping accelerated and Persian Gulf exports recovered to roughly 75% of pre-war levels following Saudi Aramco's restart of Ras Tanura loadings. The June 24 settlement had been $73.74, already 37% below March's war peak above $118. The IEA June report downgraded 2026 global demand by 700 kb/d year-on-year as elevated fuel prices suppressed consumption in Asia and Europe. General License X, issued June 22 per the US issues 60-day Iran oil sanctions waiver, gives Iranian crude a 60-day dollar-clearing pathway through August 21. The IRGC strikes on Bahrain and the Kiku tanker attack on June 27 injected fresh war-risk premium, reversing part of the week's price fall.
Why it matters
Each $10/bbl fall in Brent frees roughly $8-12 bn in annual import costs for net-importer economies including India, Turkey and Egypt. Russia's fiscal revenues fall further as export volumes stay below pre-war levels, compounding pressure from the Orenburg strikes. The 60-day waiver expires 21 August, so the recovery is provisional on Geneva talks holding.
What to watch
- Whether Brent stabilises below $75 or rebounds if the IAEA inspection dispute stalls the Geneva process
- Saudi ramp-up pace at Ras Tanura and other Gulf producer restart timelines
- Cushing stockpile rebuild trajectory, which determines US gasoline price relief