Iran's IRGC closes the Strait of Hormuz and strikes six Gulf and Middle Eastern states after overnight US bombardment of Iranian cities

Summary

Iran's IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all shipping on July 12, hours after fresh US airstrikes hit Iranian port cities including Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Chabahar, Qeshm Island, Bushehr and Asaluyeh. Iran responded by launching missile and drone attacks on Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan and the UAE, per Arab News and Al Jazeera. Three people were injured in Qatar by falling shrapnel, with Euronews journalists on the ground in Doha reporting two waves of Iranian strikes and large explosions. The UAE said missiles fired at Gulf states on July 12 did not enter its territory. The closure came after the US Saturday deadline expired without compliance; Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had met Omani officials in Muscat the previous day without reaching a deal. Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had meanwhile vowed "inevitable revenge" for his father's killing.

The split

Within the so-called axis of resistance: China, Iran's most important economic partner, has asked Tehran to reopen Hormuz three times since May 2026, most recently on June 24 (Xinhua). Beijing isn't asking to protect US interests; the strait carries roughly 20% of global oil and LNG trade, including crude China buys from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq, not just from Iran. Wang Yi told Araghchi in May it must reopen "as soon as possible" and named it one of three priorities alongside a ceasefire and a new Gulf security architecture. Iran's response to three months of Chinese pressure was to offer "special considerations" on shipping fees for friendly nations (Bloomberg, July 4) rather than reversing the closure. China needs the lanes open; Russia needs the price spike the closure creates. Both voted together in April to veto Bahrain's UN proposal on the strait, but their interests in the outcome run opposite.

Within the Gulf: Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar are all US-allied states that were struck by Iranian missiles and drones this week, the same Gulf states whose US bases the IRGC claims to oppose. Kuwait's air defenses shot down 4 Iranian missiles and 10 drones over Ali Al Salem airbase. Bahrain's FM called the pattern "not an isolated incident" but "a deliberate and repeated pattern of attacks against the kingdom's sovereignty and the security of its citizens." Saudi FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan condemned the strikes in a direct call to his Kuwaiti counterpart, urging a return to dialogue. The formal closure adds legal weight to what had been a sustained campaign of strikes on US-allied territory.

Within Iran: Foreign Minister Araghchi was in Muscat negotiating with Omani mediators on July 11; the IRGC closed the strait on July 12. The diplomatic corps and the IRGC are visibly on different tracks.

By the numbers

• ~20%: global oil and LNG that transits the Strait of Hormuz
• $57/barrel: Russian Urals crude pre-war (February 27, 2026)
• $120+/barrel: Urals peak in April 2026 during the initial IRGC closure
• $41.66/barrel: Urals in early July 2026 after the brief Iran-US interim deal reopened Hormuz
• ~$57/barrel: Urals on July 12 with the new formal closure
• 3: times China's FM Wang Yi publicly asked Tehran to reopen the strait, May to June 2026
• 4 missiles + 10 drones: intercepted by Kuwait's air defenses over Ali Al Salem airbase this week
• 6: Iranian cities hit by fresh US airstrikes on July 12 (Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Chabahar, Qeshm Island, Bushehr, Asaluyeh)
• 0: Iran-US ceasefires that have held

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical oil transit chokepoints. A formal IRGC closure declaration, rather than attacks on individual vessels, marks a significant escalation. Iran's simultaneous strikes on six states including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Jordan and the UAE, all US-aligned or hosting US forces, bring the conflict into the territory of Washington's closest Gulf partners and raise the risk of a broader regional confrontation. Prior IRGC strikes had already tested those limits. The formal closure also exposes a structural fracture in Iran's regional alignment: China, which Iran needs for economic survival under US sanctions, has been the loudest voice demanding the strait reopen, not the US.

What to watch

• Whether China moves from asking to conditioning: Tehran needs Beijing's trade and investment to outlast US sanctions long-term, giving China leverage it hasn't yet exercised publicly
• Whether the US and Gulf allies treat the formal closure as requiring a military response or attempt to reopen Oman diplomacy
• Iran's follow-through: whether the IRGC physically blocks transiting vessels or the closure remains a legal and political declaration
• Bahrain's response, given its hosting of the US Fifth Fleet
• Oil market reaction: whether the July 12 closure produces a sustained Urals price recovery or OPEC+ output hikes cap the upside