Iran-US Doha talks conclude: Hormuz and frozen assets progressed, nuclear talks deferred past Khamenei funeral
Iranian Deputy FM Gharibabadi announces two days of indirect Qatari-Pakistani-mediated talks have ended with 'positive progress' on Hormuz and $6 billion in assets; next round after July 9
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Iran's state funeral entered its second day on July 4, coinciding with the US Independence Day. Delegations from approximately 100 countries, including heads of government, parliamentary speakers and senior foreign ministers, attended ceremonies at the Imam Khomeini Mosalla in Tehran; Al Jazeera listed prominent attendees across Asia, Africa and Latin America. The ceremonies in Tehran continue July 4-5, followed by a public procession through the city July 6, with burial in Mashhad scheduled July 9. The juxtaposition of Iran's state mourning with the US 250th anniversary celebration drew extensive commentary in Gulf and Iranian media. ↗
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IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said the agency's inspectors 'will have to have access and inspect' Iran's nuclear sites under the US-Iran MoU framework, noting that the nuclear programme 'barely' came up in the Doha talks and remains the most contentious deferred item. Grossi's statement signals that the IAEA expects formal access provisions to be negotiated before the MoU's 60-day window closes. ↗
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Khamenei's coffin was placed on display at Tehran's Grand Mosalla on July 3 for the first two days of public farewell ceremonies, with foreign dignitaries and heads of state attending. Iran is staging what Irish Times described as a 'funeral of the century' across five cities and two countries over July 3-9, with millions of mourners expected. New Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who was wounded in the same US-Israeli strike that killed his father in March 2026 and has not appeared in public since, is not expected to attend due to security concerns; the supreme leader's representative in India told India Today that 'security doesn't allow him to come.' US-Iran talks are formally paused for the duration of the mourning period; the US agreed to halt talks for a week. ↗
Summary
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi announced in Doha on July 2 that two days of indirect talks between Iran and the United States, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, had concluded with "positive progress." The two sides did not meet directly; each delegation met separately with the mediators. Topics were the maritime status of the Strait of Hormuz and the release of approximately $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets, to be delivered as goods rather than cash based on Iranian requests. VP JD Vance, speaking separately, said nuclear talks would come "later." Qatar's foreign ministry confirmed a next round will be held after the conclusion of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's state funeral ceremonies, with burial in Mashhad scheduled July 9. The talks operate under the framework of a broader US-Iran MoU signed in June 2026.
Why it matters
The Hormuz angle is the energy-market story: Brent Crude has fallen to $67.74, its lowest since February, partly on expectations of sustained Iranian export access. Iranian seaborne oil exports have surged past 40 million barrels since the US naval pressure lifted. China, as Iran's largest buyer, has its own interest in the talks producing a stable Hormuz regime. The 10-day delay imposed by the Khamenei funeral introduces uncertainty: hardliners within the IRGC who opposed any agreement have more space to act, and the nuclear question, which could break the MoU framework entirely, has not been engaged.
What to watch
- The composition of Iran's negotiating delegation after the mourning period, particularly whether hardline IRGC figures gain influence during the transition.
- Whether Brent crude holds below $70 through the funeral period, or whether OPEC+ compliance data (reviewed July 5) shifts sentiment.
- Any statement from Khamenei's designated successor on the legitimacy of the MoU framework he inherited.
- Whether the nuclear discussion, when it begins, is framed as a JCPOA revival or a new agreement.