Japan's Typhoon 13 Dolphin forms in central Pacific, may hit Japan as super typhoon around the Obon holiday
Japan's Meteorological Agency designated Tropical Storm Dolphin as Typhoon 13 at 15:00 JST July 27, at 13.3°N 176.9°E; forecasters expect it to reach violent super-typhoon intensity by August 1 and diverge on whether it will approach Japan's main islands during the Obon travel period in mid-August
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Summary
Japan's 2026 typhoon season produced its 13th storm on July 27 when the Japan Meteorological Agency upgraded a tropical depression to Typhoon Dolphin at 13.3°N, 176.9°E in the central Pacific. The JMA forecasts the storm will intensify rapidly, reaching violent strength by August 1 near Minami-Torishima (Marcus Island, Japan). As of July 28 it is in the Marshall Islands region, moving west-southwest at 25 km/h through sea-surface temperatures above 30°C that will sustain development. Hong Kong named the storm Dolphin after the Chinese white dolphin. Forecast models from the JMA, the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and Europe's ECMWF diverge sharply on whether Dolphin tracks into Japan's main islands; private forecasters are careful not to rule it out during the Obon holiday travel window in mid-August.
The split
Japanese public forecasters (NHK, WeatherNews, Tenki.jp) emphasise the risk to Obon travellers and the storm's rapid-intensification potential, urging early preparation. International models (JTWC, ECMWF) remain in dispute on the northward turn that would send Dolphin toward Japan; News on Japan notes that "forecasts remain sharply divided." Dim Sum Daily highlights Hong Kong's naming authority and the storm's category, consistent with the city's focus on Pacific maritime risk.
By the numbers
- 13, typhoon number in Japan's 2026 season
- 75 m/s, maximum wind gusts forecast by the JMA at peak intensity
- 25 km/h, current movement speed in the Marshall Islands region as of July 28
- August 1, forecast date for Dolphin reaching violent super-typhoon intensity
- 30°C+, sea-surface temperatures along the projected track, supporting rapid development
Why it matters
If Dolphin tracks toward Japan's main islands, it would arrive during the Obon holiday period (mid-August), Japan's peak domestic travel season, potentially disrupting transport and causing evacuation orders for coastal and mountainous prefectures. Japan is already tracking Typhoon Noul's aftermath in China; a second major Pacific storm in the same week indicates a hyperactive late-July Pacific typhoon season.
What to watch
- Whether the JMA, JTWC and ECMWF models converge on a northward track toward Japan in the next 48-72 hours.
- Speed of intensification through the Marshall Islands and near Minami-Torishima: a faster-than-forecast intensification raises the risk of a Category 5-equivalent landfall.
- Japan government activation of early-warning guidance for Obon travel, which would signal official confidence in a Japan approach.