Modi visits Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand in July in first Indian PM trip to Auckland in four decades

Summary

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi departs July 6 on a three-leg Indo-Pacific sweep through Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand, the most geographically ambitious Act East visit since the Quad framework was elevated to leader-level summits. In Jakarta (July 6-8), Modi will co-chair the India-Indonesia Joint Commission with President Prabowo Subianto and visit the Prambanan temple complex. In Melbourne (July 8-10), he co-leads the India-Australia CEOs Forum alongside Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and holds a bilateral summit reviewing defence and supply-chain resilience. The Auckland stop (July 10-11), at the invitation of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, is the first state visit by an Indian prime minister to New Zealand since Rajiv Gandhi's trip in 1986. The itinerary is presented as India's BRICS chairmanship diplomacy and its Quad posture running in parallel: Modi meets America's closest military partners while also signalling India's value as a non-Western anchor for the Indo-Pacific region.

The Indonesia leg carries particular weight: India and Indonesia elevated ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in May 2018, and the Prabowo government has sought to deepen defence-industrial co-operation with multiple major partners simultaneously as a hedge against US-China bifurcation. India and Indonesia are negotiating a preferential trade agreement that the two foreign ministries are keen to advance before the bilateral summit.

The split

Indian strategic media frames the tour primarily through the Quad lens: with Australia and Indonesia both now inside interlocking US-led security arrangements, Modi's circuit signals India's centrality. Indonesian analysts read it differently, with Jakarta wanting investment in the Nusantara capital megaproject and supply-chain deals in nickel and critical minerals, not a formal security alignment. New Zealand's perspective is economic: Wellington has a long-standing FTA with India in negotiation, and Luxon's government views the visit as a chance to close critical-minerals and education agreements. The Chinese foreign ministry has not commented on the visit but state media has described the itinerary as "part of Washington's Indo-Pacific containment architecture."

By the numbers

• 40, years since the last Indian PM state visit to New Zealand (Rajiv Gandhi, 1986)
• 4th, the number of times Modi has visited Indonesia (previous three as prime minister)
• 270m+, the combined population of Australia, Indonesia and New Zealand as counterparts on this trip
• 1st, the ranking of India-Indonesia bilateral trade partnership India seeks to advance toward, targeting US$50 billion by 2030

Why it matters

The visit tracks India's strategy of keeping one foot in each multipolar camp: deep ties with the Quad powers while maintaining Global South leadership and non-alignment on US-China competition. Indonesia's simultaneous deepening with China on infrastructure and with India on defence makes Prabowo Subianto's bilateral a test of strategic ambiguity at scale. The New Zealand element completes India's coverage of all five The Quad partner-adjacent democracies in the Pacific.

What to watch

• Whether India and Indonesia announce a timetable on the preferential trade agreement during the summit
• Whether India secures nickel and cobalt off-take agreements in Indonesia to reduce dependence on China's processing supply chain
• The text of any joint statement between Modi and Albanese on critical minerals and defence-industry co-production
• Whether Luxon and Modi agree to accelerate the stalled India-NZ FTA negotiations