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Modi's bid to isolate Pakistan backfires as Islamabad courts Washington and Beijing

A decade after Modi vowed to quarantine Pakistan, Islamabad signs minerals and crypto deals with Trump's circle and an 'all-weather' upgrade with Xi, and India is left protesting from the sidelines

Leaders·Conflicts· active What They're Not Saying·Who Decides·The Quiet Shift ·21 takes · ·rbtfl upd Jun 24, 2026
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The split

The same story, as told by newsrooms in different countries. Their words, attributed and linked.

Qatar

Al Jazeera

“India's strategy of undercutting and isolating Pakistan, regionally and globally, has backfired in a big way., Michael Kugelman, Atlantic Council”

pan-regional / sympathetic to Islamabad framingread the original ↗

Pakistan

The Express Tribune

“Pakistan, once cast as a pariah, now sits at the table where Washington and Tehran negotiate, the isolation script has been reversed.”

Pakistani independent / triumphalistread the original ↗

Pakistan

Pakistan Today

“Islamabad acknowledged Trump's role in the truce and nominated him for the Nobel; a sullen New Delhi insisted the ceasefire was its own call.”

Pakistani independent / government-line amplifierread the original ↗

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Summary

A decade after Narendra Modi pledged after the 2016 Uri attack to diplomatically isolate Pakistan, the policy has visibly inverted. Through 2025-26 Pakistan engaged Washington, Beijing, Tehran and Riyadh simultaneously: it signed critical-minerals deals with the Trump administration (United States EXIM Bank approved $1.3bn for the Reko Diq copper-gold project under "Project Vault"), a non-binding USD1-stablecoin MoU with the Trump-linked SC Financial Technologies, and on 25-26 May an "all-weather" partnership upgrade with China, Shehbaz Sharif meeting Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People. [[Al Jazeera]]'s 29 May "backfire" analysis crystallised the framing. Pakistan also acted as mediator in the US-Iran "Islamabad MoU" and nominated Donald Trump for a Nobel, credit Modi refused after the May 2025 ceasefire, leaving India protesting the joint statement's Kashmir and CPEC references. See What They're Not Saying, Who Decides.

The split

Pakistani outlets ([[The Express Tribune]], [[Pakistan Today]]) treat it as vindication, Islamabad restored to the table. [[Al Jazeera]] and Gulf papers stress structural drivers: mediation utility, minerals, remittances. Indian adversarial voices ([[The Wire]], Congress via [[The Tribune (India)]]) call it a "monumental failure" of Modi's foreign policy; establishment outlets ([[Organiser]]) reject the thesis, reading China's Kashmir line as Beijing's anxiety over India's rise. [[China]]'s [[CGTN]] omits any India angle entirely, framing only "iron brothers" and a shared future.

By the numbers

  • $1.3bn, US EXIM financing approved (7 Feb 2026) for Reko Diq, the sole foreign deal in the $10bn "Project Vault" portfolio.
  • $500m, pledged US private investment in Pakistani critical minerals (US Strategic Metals / FWO).
  • ~$34bn, Pakistan remittances this fiscal year, led by Saudi Arabia ($7.93bn) and the UAE ($7bn).
  • 75, anniversary, in years, of China-Pakistan diplomatic relations marked by the May visit.
  • 2016, year of Modi's Uri-era pledge to isolate Pakistan "across the world".
  • 2008, Mumbai attacks, the last time India broadly succeeded in isolating Pakistan (per The Wire).

Why it matters

India's signature regional strategy, quarantine Pakistan, lean on a personal Trump rapport, has not delivered: Trump has visited China but not India, floated a trip to Pakistan, and let Islamabad broker his Iran diplomacy. The reversal exposes Narendra Modi at home (opposition attacks) and abroad (cooler US ties), while hard-wiring Pakistan deeper into both the US minerals supply chain and CPEC.

What to watch

  • Whether the Reko Diq financing and "Project Vault" survive Balochistan's legal challenges and security risks.
  • A Trump visit to Pakistan and/or India, the clearest signal of which capital Washington now prioritises.
  • CPEC Phase 2 / Karakoram Highway and Gwadar progress, and any new India MEA pushback on the Kashmir clause.
  • Whether the Congress critique gains traction against Modi's foreign-policy record beyond Modi's plan to nearly double the Lok Sabha is voted down.

The briefing, by email