US tanker seizures and post-Maduro licences reshape Venezuela's oil exports

Summary

Since 10 December 2025 the US has seized at least seven Venezuela-linked tankers, among them the M Sophia, MV Olina, Veronica and Sagitta, under a maritime-pressure campaign that climaxed with the 3 January 2026 operation removing Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro and installing acting president Delcy Rodríguez. OFAC sanctioned four oil traders and named four shadow-fleet tankers as blocked property, while issuing a June 2026 general-licence suite (GL 46C, 47A, 48B, 50B, 51B) letting named majors, Chevron, BP, Eni, Repsol, Shell, re-engage without paying the state in cash. Analysts say seizures risk pushing more crude into a shadow fleet shared with Iran and Russia even as exports are projected to rebound toward 1.5m b/d by year-end.

By the numbers

• 7+, Venezuela-linked tankers seized by the US since December 2025.
• ~120,000 b/d, Venezuelan crude Chevron imported to the US in December.
• 1.5m b/d, projected Venezuelan export rate by end-2026 under normalisation.
• 5+, June 2026 general licences governing oil, petrochemicals, diluents and minerals.

Why it matters

Venezuela's barrels are now caught between two policies: seizure of evasion cargoes and licensed re-entry for Western majors. The mix determines whether Caracas's oil flows through the legal market or sinks further into the Shadow Fleet, and how fast the transition government can monetise the world's largest reserves.

What to watch

• Whether more seizures follow or licences widen as the transition stabilises.
• Chevron and peers' license terms and the no-cash-to-state condition.
• Diversion of sanctioned cargoes into Iran/Russia-style ship-to-ship transfers.