到7月初，海峡通行量已恢复至战前正常水平的约32-42%；摩根士丹利两周内两度下调石油预期，指出中东原油在中国需求疲软削弱的市场中重新涌回，形成供应过剩

阿曼和国际海事组织开通免费通航路线后一天，伊朗革命卫队称其'不可接受'，要求强制使用16频道进行协调

三个燃料储罐在占领区克里米亚附近燃起大火，基辅持续打击俄罗斯炼油及物流设施，国内柴油短缺加剧

截至6月25日原油已较战时高点下跌40%，随后伊斯兰革命卫队在霍尔木兹袭击一艘长荣集团集装箱船，战争风险溢价骤然回升

Iran routes roughly 1.5 million barrels of crude per day through a shadow fleet and front-company network to circumvent US and EU sanctions that have been in place since the 1990s.

Russia's network of roughly 600 aging tankers that moves sanctioned crude oil outside G7 oversight, funding the war in Ukraine.

The narrow channel between Iran and Oman's Musandam Peninsula is the world's single most critical oil shipping chokepoint, carrying roughly 20 million barrels per day, and its security status in 2026 became the defining variable in global energy markets.

Shared by Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia, the Strait of Malacca carries 23 million barrels of oil daily, more than any other chokepoint, linking Middle Eastern suppliers to Asian markets.

Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves but produces a fraction of its peak output, making its recovery the most consequential upstream story in the Western Hemisphere.

霍尔木兹封锁与红海回避叠加，承运商绕道好望角，主要航线即期运费上涨29%至129%

霍尔木兹海峡重新开放后，一般许可证X恢复伊朗原油出口，并提供银行、保险及航运配套保障

布伦特原油3月触及近118美元峰值；停火后正常化使其于6月24日回落至75.57美元，但逾500艘船只排队等候及卡塔尔液化天然气爆炸事故令市场持续动荡

炼油厂遭袭导致汽油产量下降四分之一，诺瓦克称国内市场'困难但可控'，莫斯科转向海运进口

财政部点名将伊朗液化石油气重新贴标为阿曼产品、向南亚和东亚输送数百万桶的壳公司

英国皇家海军陆战队在英吉利海峡扣押"斯米尔托斯"号，数日后一批针对船只、保险商及采购网络的制裁措施随即出台

战争推高油价将2026年通胀预测推升至3.0%，存款利率升至2.25%，同时增长停滞

船对船转运与AIS欺骗油轮持续突破石油进口上限，而联合国相关机构已遭否决

法国海军在大西洋拦截登上「塔戈尔」号，巴黎、伦敦及合作伙伴将战略从制裁名单列入转向实际扣押

华盛顿扣押了至少七艘与委内瑞拉相关的油轮，同时为过渡政府发放了新的一般许可证