Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

What it is

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, born October 27, 1945, in Garanhuns, Pernambuco, northeastern Brazil, is Brazil's president serving a third term since January 1, 2023, and a declared candidate for a fourth term in the October 2026 general election. A former metalworker and trade union leader, he is the architect of Brazil's Bolsa Família conditional cash transfer program and the most electorally consequential left-of-center figure in Latin American politics. As of July 2026, he governs a country of 215 million people with a nominal GDP of roughly US$2.3 trillion, the largest economy in Latin America.

History

Lula grew up in poverty in the northeastern interior, moved with his family to São Paulo as a child, and found work as a metalworker in the ABC industrial belt. He lost a finger in a factory accident as a young worker. Elected president of the Metalworkers' Union of São Bernardo do Campo in 1975, he led the ABC strikes of 1978 to 1980, which challenged the Brazilian military dictatorship and catalyzed the country's democratic opening. In 1980 he co-founded the Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT). He ran for the Brazilian presidency and lost in 1989, 1994, and 1998 before winning in October 2002 with 61% of the runoff vote on a platform of social reform and fiscal responsibility.

His first two terms (2003-2010) coincided with the commodities boom: roughly 20 million Brazilians exited poverty under Bolsa Família and Fome Zero, unemployment fell, and he left office in January 2011 with roughly 80% approval. The federal Car Wash (Lava Jato) corruption investigation engulfed him by 2016. Federal Judge Sérgio Moro convicted Lula of passive corruption and money laundering in July 2017; he was imprisoned in April 2018 and served 580 days, precluded from the 2018 race that Jair Bolsonaro won. In March 2021, Brazil's Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) justice Edson Fachin annulled all of Moro's convictions on jurisdictional grounds, restoring Lula's political rights. He defeated Bolsonaro in the October 2022 runoff 50.9% to 49.1%.

Current state

Lula's third term opened with the January 8, 2023 attack on Brazil's federal institutions in Brasília by Bolsonaro supporters, prosecuted by the STF as an insurrection attempt. His government passed a landmark Brazilian tax reform in 2023 and a new fiscal framework, but persistent primary deficits and high interest rates have kept the Banco Central do Brasil under pressure. The Copom cut the Selic rate to 14.25% in June 2026 (巴西央行将基准利率Selic降至14.25%，同时上调通胀预测), the third consecutive cut, even as the inflation forecast was revised upward. A 25% US tariff threatened Brazilian exports by mid-2026 (Lula threatens reciprocity as Trump's 25% tariff collides with Brazil's election). A fractured Mercosur summit in late June 2026 complicated his multilateral agenda (南方共同市场峰会开幕，巴西与阿根廷就米莱的美国贸易协议产生分歧). The STF's conviction of Eduardo Bolsonaro for coercing US sanctions against Brazilian judges (STF裁定爱德华多·博索纳罗有罪，因游说特朗普制裁巴西法官) hardened the political divide ahead of the 2026 vote.

Lula recovered from a December 2024 fall and brain bleed, announced his fourth-term candidacy in October 2025, and as of July 2026 leads polls against Flávio Bolsonaro by double digits (Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro by double digits as the fourth-term campaign hardens), short of a first-round majority (卢拉与博索纳罗之子以势均力敌之势迎战巴西十月大选).

Relationships

His vice president is Geraldo Alckmin, a former PSDB rival who switched alliances for the 2022 ticket. Gabriel Galipolo, Lula's 2024 nominee as Banco Central do Brasil governor, has maintained rate-setting independence despite presidential pressure for faster cuts. Dilma Rousseff, Lula's handpicked successor in 2010, now heads the BRICS New Development Bank. His PT governs in coalition with over a dozen Brazilian parties. Jair Bolsonaro, convicted and barred from running in Brazilian elections until 2030, has ceded the 2026 campaign to eldest son Flávio.

What to watch

Whether Lula achieves a first-round majority or faces Flávio Bolsonaro in an October 2026 runoff; the trajectory of the Selic rate, at 14.25% as of June 2026, as the Copom balances disinflation against election-year fiscal pressure; how the US-Brazil tariff standoff (Lula threatens reciprocity as Trump's 25% tariff collides with Brazil's election) resolves before year-end; and the pace of Mercosur-EU trade implementation (南方共同市场峰会开幕，巴西与阿根廷就米莱的美国贸易协议产生分歧). At 80 years old, Lula's health after the December 2024 brain bleed remains a background variable in Brazilian electoral politics.