Houthis hold fire on Red Sea shipping, but threaten to choke Bab el-Mandeb if war reignites

Three months of quiet on commercial vessels is a 'structured pause under tension,' not a truce; the group says it will resume and could close the strait if the US-Iran war restarts

Conflicts·Energy· frozen How Wars Actually End·Whose Money ·12 takes ·Jun 15, 2026 ·rbtfl upd Jun 24, 2026

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Summary

Yemen War's Red Sea front is in a conditional freeze. The Houthis resumed missile and drone attacks on Israel on 28 March after pausing for the Gaza truce, then ceased again following the 7 April Iran-US ceasefire. They have not struck commercial shipping for roughly three months, described by analysts as a "structured pause under tension," not a de-escalation. Leadership says it is ready to resume in support of Iran if Washington restarts hostilities, and in April threatened to close Bab El Mandeb if Gulf states join a campaign against Iran. The UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2812 extending Red Sea attack monitoring for six months. Diversions around the Cape persist as a hedge, keeping freight costs elevated.

By the numbers

~3 months, span with no Houthi attacks on commercial vessels.
28 March 2026, Houthis resumed attacks on Israel; halted after 7 April ceasefire.
Res. 2812, UNSC resolution extending Red Sea monitoring six months.
Bab el-Mandeb, the chokepoint Houthis threaten to close if Gulf states join.

Why it matters

The pause is leverage, not peace: a Houthi veto over a chokepoint carrying a large share of Europe-Asia trade. It binds the Yemen front to the Iran track, if that ceasefire collapses, shipping and oil risk reprice immediately.

What to watch

Any resumption of attacks tied to a breakdown in the Iran ceasefire.
Whether Gulf states' posture triggers the Bab el-Mandeb closure threat.
Insurance and diversion costs as the conditional pause holds or breaks.

the record · 2

UN Security Council, Resolution 2812 (2026) — The Council's adoption of Resolution 2812 extending for six months the reporting requirement on Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, the primary record of the monitoring regime that frames the current pause.
US MARAD, Maritime advisory 2026-006 — US Maritime Administration advisory on the threat environment across the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea and Somali Basin, the official risk picture shippers route by.

Regional takes · 2

▸ Gulf mainstream

The National · United Arab Emirates · en · Mar 17, 2026

Probes why the Houthis stayed off commercial shipping during the Iran war, a calibrated, conditional posture tied to political timing rather than degraded capacity.

“Three weeks into the Iran war, the mystery is the absence of Houthi attacks on Red Sea ships, a calibrated pause, not an end of capability.”

Source ↗

▸ Israeli mainstream

Times of Israel · Israel · en

Reports the Houthi threat to close Bab el-Mandeb if Gulf states join a US-Israel campaign against Iran, the explicit condition under which the pause ends.

“The Houthis threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait if any Gulf countries join the US and Israel against Iran.”