Gas and LNG: six regional benchmarks and the supply chains behind them
Natural gas is the world's swing fuel, priced on six regional benchmarks whose gaps reveal who controls supply and who bears the risk.
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What it is
The gas and LNG beat tracks six regional price benchmarks and the supply chains behind them. TTF (Title Transfer Facility, Netherlands) is Europe's main gas hub. JKM (Japan Korea Marker, assessed by S&P Global Platts) is the Asian LNG spot benchmark. Henry Hub (Erath, Louisiana) is the North American benchmark, priced in US$/MMBtu at the intersection of nine interstate pipelines. The three supply-side subjects are Qatar LNG, the single largest LNG exporter globally; US LNG, the fastest-growing export source; and Russian pipeline gas, whose role in European supply has collapsed since 2022.
Gas is the world's swing fuel: cheap gas displaces coal in power generation; expensive gas raises industrial energy costs and heating bills across Europe, Asia, and the Americas. The six benchmarks are three regionally anchored markets connected by LNG tankers. Routing decisions are driven by the spread between Henry Hub and JKM or TTF: when it widens, US terminals run at capacity; when it narrows, throughput slows.
History
Henry Hub futures began trading on NYMEX in 1990. The Netherlands TTF hub opened in 1999 and ICE listed TTF futures in 2010, becoming Europe's benchmark as the continent shifted from oil-indexed bilateral contracts toward hub pricing. The Platts JKM assessment launched around 2009, becoming Asia's LNG spot reference as Japanese buyers accelerated LNG imports after the Fukushima nuclear closures of 2011.
The structural break was 2022. Russia supplied roughly 40% of EU natural gas in 2021 via pipeline. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Gazprom progressively curtailed deliveries; Nord Stream 1 was destroyed by sabotage in September 2022. TTF spiked to €341/MWh in August 2022. European buyers replaced Russian volumes by competing for Asian LNG spot cargoes, structurally tightening JKM even as European demand fell. The EU agreed in December 2025 to phase out remaining Russian gas by November 2027.
Current state
As of mid-2026, the IEA projects global LNG supply growth of more than 7% (over 40 bcm) in 2026, the fastest pace since 2019, with North America accounting for over 85% of incremental capacity. The Golden Pass LNG terminal in Texas, co-owned by QatarEnergy (70%) and ExxonMobil (30%), loaded its first cargo in 2026, linking Henry Hub pricing to JKM arbitrage. New US capacity is absorbing domestic supply: the Henry Hub supply glut through H1 2026 kept US prices at historic lows. In Europe, the TTF summer storage shortfall has kept prices elevated above pre-war norms as buyers fill reserves for winter 2026-27. The JKM summer 2026 curve reflects strong Chinese and Indian demand for spot cargoes.
Qatar's North Field East expansion achieved first LNG in mid-2026, beginning a ramp toward 142 million tonnes per year (mtpa) by 2030, up from 77 mtpa in 2025.
Relationships
TTF, JKM, and Henry Hub decouple on local demand shocks but reconnect through LNG trade flows. A cold European winter draws down storage, pushes TTF up, and pulls US-origin cargoes away from Asia, compressing the JKM-Henry Hub spread. Qatar's long-term contracts cover roughly 95% of its output; spot sales fill the residual, and its expansion volumes will set the price floor for the global LNG surplus building through the late 2020s.
Russian pipeline gas now reaches European markets only via TurkStream (15.75 bcm per year), transiting the Black Sea to Turkey and the Balkans. The Ukrainian strike on Orenburg gas infrastructure in 2026 disrupted Russian supply logistics further. The TurkStream route remains relevant to Balkan and Turkish pricing even as the EU phases out Russian gas.
What to watch
- Qatar North Field East train ramp in H2 2026: the first incremental volumes arrive in an already-long LNG market, placing downward pressure on JKM premiums.
- EU storage fill rate through September 2026: if storage hits 90%, the TTF winter premium compresses; a shortfall sustains it through the heating season.
- Golden Pass US LNG ramp: each 5 mtpa train widens the Henry Hub-to-global-market spread bridge and keeps domestic US prices low.
- TurkStream stability: any disruption to the remaining Russian export route tightens Balkan spot gas markets and pushes TTF.
- Henry Hub in Q4 2026: whether US LNG export demand absorbs enough domestic shale output to lift prices from the H1 glut.