Taiwan runs first publicly named tabletop exercise simulating a PRC maritime coercion scenario

Summary

Taiwan held a government-wide tabletop exercise on June 26 explicitly named as a "maritime coercion response" drill, the first public exercise of this type. It followed the PRC's June 6-10 maritime law enforcement operation in which Chinese coast guard vessels asserted jurisdiction in waters east of the island and interfered with Taiwanese commercial shipping. The drill involved the Coast Guard Administration, Ministry of Transportation, Ministry of National Defense and National Security Council. Participants modeled scenarios including PRC coast guard interference at eastern ports, supply chain disruptions and communications isolation. By publicly naming the scenario, Taipei signals it views the June operation as a rehearsal rather than a one-off action.

Why it matters

Maritime coercion, short of military force, is the most flexible and deniable tool Beijing possesses against Taiwan. The June 6-10 operation east of the island was the first time PRC coast guard vessels asserted jurisdiction in Pacific waters beyond Taiwan's eastern coastline, a significant geographic expansion. Taiwan's public response with a named drill signals strategic clarity: Taipei categorises what happened as coercion, not a navigation dispute, and is building response capacity accordingly. The exercise comes while Washington's attention is on the Iran MoU and Ukraine, narrowing the bandwidth US officials have to reassure Taipei.

What to watch

• Whether Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration announces new vessel procurement or interagency protocols based on the exercise findings.
• PRC Ministry of Defense or Foreign Ministry response to Taiwan publicly naming the "maritime coercion" scenario.
• Whether the AIT or Japan Coast Guard initiate any new bilateral coordination with Taiwan on coast guard operations.
• Timing of the next PRC coast guard operation east of Taiwan.