Middle Corridor volumes dip as the Trans-Caspian route hits its capacity ceiling

Summary

The Middle Corridor (Trans-Caspian International Transport Route), China → Kazakhstan → Caspian → Azerbaijan/Georgia → Turkey/Europe, recorded a 2025 volume dip to ~4.12m tons, down from a ~4.48m-ton peak in 2024, even as cargo has grown roughly fivefold over seven years. The route carried ~77,000 TEU in 2025 against a 300,000-TEU target for 2029. The dip exposes the structural ceiling: multiple borders, transshipments and a Caspian-ferry bottleneck cap throughput. To break it, the World Bank approved an $846m guarantee in early 2026 backing $1.4bn of financing for Kazakhstan's national railway, and the $542m Darbaza-Maktaaral line is due in 2026. Capacity is projected toward ~10m tons/year by 2027, if the bottlenecks clear.

By the numbers

• ~4.12m tons, 2025 cargo (down from ~4.48m tons in 2024).
• ~5x, seven-year volume growth (~0.8m → ~4.5m tons).
• ~77,000 TEU, 2025 container volume; target 300,000 TEU by 2029.
• $846m, World Bank guarantee (early 2026) backing $1.4bn for KTZ rail.
• ~10m tons/yr, projected 2027 capacity if bottlenecks clear.

Why it matters

The Middle Corridor is the only east-west route that bypasses both Russia and the Red Sea/Suez, making it strategically prized by the EU and China alike. But the 2025 dip shows demand-pull from elsewhere is not enough, without the financed rail and ferry upgrades, the corridor risks staying a niche hedge rather than a trunk route.

What to watch

• 2026 full-year volumes: a rebound or a confirmed plateau.
• Completion of the Darbaza-Maktaaral line and Caspian-ferry capacity adds.
• Whether the World Bank-backed KTZ financing converts into throughput.