Section 201 solar tariffs lapse as a Section 232 polysilicon probe looms

Summary

The US Section 201 safeguard on crystalline-silicon Solar modules expired on 6 February 2026 after eight years, ending at a 14% terminal rate. But the trade wall around Renewables is being rebuilt elsewhere: Section 301 duties on Chinese-origin cells, modules, polysilicon and wafers remain, 50%+ on some products, and a Section 232 national-security investigation into polysilicon, opened July 2025, could hit every product containing it, including wafers and cells. Reciprocal 2025 tariffs also bite Southeast Asian routes (Vietnam 46%, Cambodia 49%, Thailand 36%, Malaysia 24%). The net effect reshuffles import economics even as US demand and storage grow.

By the numbers

• 6 Feb 2026, Section 201 expiry, at a 14% final rate (8 years total).
• 50%+, Section 301 duties on some Chinese solar products.
• July 2025, Section 232 polysilicon probe opened.
• 46% / 49% / 36% / 24%, reciprocal tariffs on Vietnam/Cambodia/Thailand/Malaysia.

Why it matters

Tariff layers decide whether US solar deployment runs on imports or a still-nascent domestic manufacturing base. A broad polysilicon 232 action would touch nearly every panel sold and could either spur factories or raise project costs into a high-demand, transmission-constrained market.

What to watch

• The Section 232 polysilicon determination and its scope.
• Whether 201's lapse lowers landed module prices in practice.
• Domestic cell/wafer capacity response to the tariff mix.