多哈伊美谈判结束:霍尔木兹与冻结资产取得进展,核谈判推迟至哈梅内伊葬礼后
伊朗副外长加里巴巴迪宣布为期两天的卡塔尔-巴基斯坦斡旋间接谈判以'积极进展'告终,涉及霍尔木兹与60亿美元资产,下轮会谈于7月9日后举行
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Iran's state funeral entered its second day on July 4, coinciding with the US Independence Day. Delegations from approximately 100 countries, including heads of government, parliamentary speakers and senior foreign ministers, attended ceremonies at the Imam Khomeini Mosalla in Tehran; Al Jazeera listed prominent attendees across Asia, Africa and Latin America. The ceremonies in Tehran continue July 4-5, followed by a public procession through the city July 6, with burial in Mashhad scheduled July 9. The juxtaposition of Iran's state mourning with the US 250th anniversary celebration drew extensive commentary in Gulf and Iranian media. ↗
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IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said the agency's inspectors 'will have to have access and inspect' Iran's nuclear sites under the US-Iran MoU framework, noting that the nuclear programme 'barely' came up in the Doha talks and remains the most contentious deferred item. Grossi's statement signals that the IAEA expects formal access provisions to be negotiated before the MoU's 60-day window closes. ↗
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Khamenei's coffin was placed on display at Tehran's Grand Mosalla on July 3 for the first two days of public farewell ceremonies, with foreign dignitaries and heads of state attending. Iran is staging what Irish Times described as a 'funeral of the century' across five cities and two countries over July 3-9, with millions of mourners expected. New Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who was wounded in the same US-Israeli strike that killed his father in March 2026 and has not appeared in public since, is not expected to attend due to security concerns; the supreme leader's representative in India told India Today that 'security doesn't allow him to come.' US-Iran talks are formally paused for the duration of the mourning period; the US agreed to halt talks for a week. ↗
摘要
伊朗副外长卡泽姆·加里巴巴迪7月2日在多哈宣布,由卡塔尔和巴基斯坦斡旋的伊美两天间接谈判以"积极进展"告终。双方代表团未直接会面,各自与调停方单独磋商。议题为Strait of Hormuz的海上情势以及约60亿美元冻结伊朗资产的释放(以物品而非现金按伊朗需求交付)。副总统万斯另行表示核谈判将在"以后"进行。卡塔尔外交部确认,下轮会谈将在前最高领袖Ali Khamenei国葬仪式(马什哈德安葬定于7月9日)结束后举行。谈判在2026年6月签署的美伊谅解备忘录框架下进行。
为何重要
霍尔木兹问题直接关系能源市场:Brent Crude已跌至2月以来最低的67.74美元,部分原因正是市场对伊朗出口持续可及的预期。美国海上压力解除后,伊朗海上出口已飙升至逾4000万桶。作为伊朗最大买家,中国同样期待谈判形成稳定的霍尔木兹海峡通行机制。葬礼带来的10天空窗期令反对任何协议的伊斯兰革命卫队强硬派获得更大活动空间,而核问题尚未被纳入谈判议程。
关注要点
- 哀悼期结束后伊朗谈判代表团的构成,尤其是过渡期间IRGC强硬派是否扩大影响。
- 葬礼期间布伦特是否守住70美元以下,或欧佩克+合规数据(7月5日审查)是否改变市场情绪。
- 哈梅内伊指定继任者就其继承的MoU框架合法性发表的声明。
- 核讨论展开时是以JCPOA复活还是新协议形式推进。