Marcos balances ASEAN chair against China's Scarborough 'nature reserve'
Manila condemns Beijing's 3,500-hectare reserve as a sovereignty grab, mandates Philippine names for sea features, while chairing ASEAN and courting a code of conduct
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Summary
Ferdinand Marcos Jr is running a two-track South China Sea policy as 2026 ASEAN chair. He condemned Beijing's approval of a ~3,500-hectare "nature reserve" at Scarborough Shoal as an infringement of Philippines sovereignty, and issued an executive order mandating Philippine names for West Philippine Sea features. At the same time he is courting de-escalation: he says he would host Xi Jinping in Manila only if a binding South China Sea code of conduct is concluded in 2026, while deepening defence cooperation with the US. As ASEAN chair he must hold a consensus that includes China-friendly members, a balancing act analysts say forces Manila's rhetoric to outrun the bloc's caution. Chinese coast-guard water-cannoning and dangerous manoeuvres against Philippine vessels continue.
By the numbers
- ~3,500, hectares of the Scarborough Shoal "nature reserve" Beijing approved.
- 2026, Philippines' ASEAN chairmanship year; target for a code-of-conduct deal.
- 1 condition, Marcos's offer to host Xi: conclude the code of conduct first.
Why it matters
Scarborough sits inside the Philippine EEZ and astride fishing grounds; a Chinese "reserve" is a step toward administrative control of contested water. Marcos's chair year gives him a platform but also a constraint, he cannot push ASEAN past members who depend on Beijing, so symbolism (names, condemnations) substitutes for enforcement.
What to watch
- Whether code-of-conduct talks produce a binding text in 2026.
- Chinese construction or patrols actualising the "nature reserve".
- US–Philippine defence steps and any new flashpoint at sea.