Russia holds the line, for now, after New START

Summary

Four months after New START lapsed, Russia has not broken out. Russian officials said Moscow would keep observing the central limits, 1,550 warheads on 700 delivery vehicles, so long as Washington does. US assessments (CRS, May 2026) confirm no large-scale warhead increase. But the latent capacity remains: analysts estimate Russia could upload hundreds of non-deployed warheads, lifting its deployed force by up to ~60%. Speed varies by leg, bombers in hours, submarines in months, ICBM reconfiguration in years. The consensus read (War on the Rocks, Bulletin) is that Russian modernization mostly replaces Soviet-era systems rather than expanding numbers, leaving little near-term incentive to sprint, but the option is now legally unconstrained.

By the numbers

• ~60%, potential increase in deployed warheads if Russia fully uploads its reserve.
• 1,550 / 700, the New START limits Moscow says it will still observe.
• Hours to years, upload time depending on bomber, submarine or ICBM.
• 4 months, since the treaty lapsed with no Russian breakout.

Why it matters

The danger is no longer a treaty cap but an opaque, reversible hedge. Without inspections, Washington must infer Russian intentions from sparse signals, and any US upload to match a perceived Russian move would be equally unverifiable, the classic action–reaction spiral arms control was built to dampen.

What to watch

• Satellite/intelligence signs of warhead loading at bomber or ICBM bases.
• Any US decision to upload first, citing the China threat.
• Russian statements tying restraint to US missile-defence (Golden Dome) moves.