Ukraine-Russia War

What it is

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine is the largest interstate armed conflict in Europe since 1945. Launched on February 24, 2022, the invasion followed eight years of lower-intensity conflict rooted in Russia's 2014 seizure of Crimea and armed support for separatists in Ukraine's Donbas region. The core contest is territorial and political: Russia seeks to prevent Ukraine from aligning with NATO and the EU; Ukraine seeks to recover occupied territory and secure durable Western security guarantees. As of July 2026, the war is in its fifth year with no ceasefire in sight.

History

Russia seized Ukraine's Crimean peninsula and backed armed separatists in the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in 2014, producing a frozen conflict that killed roughly 14,000 people over eight years. The full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022 opened from Russian, Belarusian, and occupied-Donbas territory simultaneously. An early Russian drive on Kyiv collapsed by late March 2022 after stiff Ukrainian resistance. The UN General Assembly voted 141–5 on March 2, 2022 demanding Russia's immediate withdrawal (Resolution ES-11/1). Russia formally annexed four Ukrainian oblasts (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson) by presidential decree in September 2022; a subsequent General Assembly resolution condemned the annexation 143–5. The International Court of Justice indicated provisional measures in March 2022 ordering Russia to suspend military operations; Moscow ignored the order. Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia failed to breach Russian defensive lines. Russia captured Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast in February 2024 and continued incremental advances through 2025. The ICJ ruled it had jurisdiction in February 2024; Russia's counter-claims were admitted in December 2025 and the case remains at the merits stage.

Current state

Russia controls approximately 20% of Ukraine's internationally recognised territory as of July 2026, including Crimea and substantial portions of the four annexed oblasts. Frontlines are broadly static, with Russia making slow, costly gains in eastern Ukraine. On July 2, 2026, Russia launched its single largest attack of the war: 74 missiles and 496 drones in an 11-hour overnight barrage that killed 25 civilians in Kyiv and wounded more than 80 (ロシアがキーウに74発のミサイルと496機のドローンを発射、戦争最大級の攻撃の一つ). Ukraine's Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov wrote to 40 partner countries requesting Patriot interceptor transfers; Ukraine requires roughly 2,000 per year but received only about 600 since 2022. Russia's planned military budget for 2026 is 14.9 trillion roubles (6.3% of GDP), down from 16 trillion roubles (7.5% of GDP) in 2025 but subject to in-year amendment as oil revenues fluctuate. Ukraine's military spending reached US$84.1 billion in 2025, equal to 40% of GDP. On July 1, 2026, Ukraine opened controlled weapons exports to 27 partner countries for the first time since the invasion began (ウクライナ、2022年の侵攻開始以来初めて管理された武器輸出を解禁).

Relationships

Western governments supply Ukraine with weapons, intelligence, and financing. The US has provided Patriot air-defence systems, HIMARS rocket artillery, and F-16 fighters; its Patriot stockpiles are strained by concurrent operations elsewhere. The EU enacted its 21st sanctions package against Russia in 2026. Russia is resupplied by North Korea (ammunition and troops) and Iran (Shahed drones, a key component of escalating mass strikes including ロシア、ウクライナに夜間大規模ミサイル・ドローン攻撃、少なくとも20人死亡). China maintains formal neutrality while providing dual-use goods and diplomatic cover at the UN Security Council. Poland has deepened military coordination with Ukraine through drone-sharing arrangements (ウクライナがドローン技術の共有を拒否、ポーランドがMiG-29移転を阻止) while countering Russian hybrid operations on its own soil (ポーランド、ロシアが資金援助したウクライナ難民への反キーウ抗議デモ工作で11人を国外追放). Russia's government rejected limits on Ukrainian deep-strike capability in June 2026 (プーチン、長距離攻撃停止のウクライナ提案を拒否、「キーウは和平ではなく自国救済を求めている」).

What to watch

ICJ merits hearings on the genocide-convention case will test both parties' competing legal theories on the pre-2022 Donbas conflict. NATO membership for Ukraine remains formally deferred. The reparations mechanism backed by approximately US$300 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets has not yet produced disbursements. Ukraine's new defence-export programme will test whether a wartime economy can become a supply chain for partner militaries. Russia's 2026 military budget may be amended upward if oil revenues recover. Frontline activity across eastern Ukraine shows no sign of movement toward a negotiated settlement as of early July 2026.