Mexico and the US hold third round of USMCA review as US trade representative Greer meets President Sheinbaum
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer arrived in Mexico City on July 23 for the third bilateral review round of the USMCA, meeting Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard and President Claudia Sheinbaum; Greer signalled the US will seek provisional arrangements with Mexico before end-2026 and said renewal of the agreement depends partly on Mexico's cooperation on water-sharing and border security
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Summary
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard in Mexico City on July 23 for the third round of bilateral USMCA review, then met President Claudia Sheinbaum at the National Palace. Greer told reporters the US will seek "provisional arrangements" with Mexico before end-2026, setting an accelerated timeline for interim agreements rather than a full renegotiation. He also signalled that USMCA renewal depends partly on Mexico's cooperation on water-sharing and border security, linking trade access to non-trade demands. The current review is the first of the 10 years remaining on USMCA's current term, after the Trump administration declined a 16-year renewal, per El Imparcial.
The split
Mexican financial press (El Financiero, Infobae) focused on the provisional-arrangement timeline as a potential near-term deliverable. El Imparcial adopted Mexico's defensive framing, stating that Mexico "will defend its commercial arguments," foregrounding the asymmetry in bargaining power. La Jornada, drawing on Greer's statement, highlighted the linkage of trade to water and border cooperation, which the Mexican government has publicly resisted accepting as conditions for trade negotiations.
By the numbers
- 3, review round underway in Mexico City
- 10 years remaining under USMCA's current term
- 16 years, the renewal period the Trump administration declined
- End-2026, Greer's stated target for provisional arrangements
Why it matters
USMCA covers roughly US$1.6 trillion in annual trade between the US, Mexico, and Canada. Linking its review to water-sharing and border security creates a precedent for conditioning trade access on non-trade policy, which Mexico's government sees as a violation of the treaty's scope. Provisional interim deals before year-end would give both sides something to announce without resolving the structural dispute over conditions.
What to watch
- Whether Mexico accepts water and border security as formal conditions in the review process
- What "provisional arrangements" cover: tariff rates, sector carve-outs, or investment rules
- Canada's position, given Ottawa's parallel tariff dispute with Washington
- Timeline for a fourth review round