ERCOT forecasts record 92GW summer peak, says Texas grid will hold
Data-center load pushes the 2026 summer forecast past the 85.5GW record; ERCOT puts the odds of a June emergency at 0.09%
Summary
Ercot on 3 June 2026 forecast a record summer peak above 92GW, beating the 85.5GW mark set in August 2023, and said the Texas grid is expected to hold without emergency. The growth is driven by data-center and large industrial Electricity load: interconnection requests now total roughly 450GW, more than five times ERCOT's all-time peak, with over 70% from data centers. Since last summer ERCOT has added about 5GW of battery storage, 4GW of solar and 1.5GW of gas. The operator puts the chance of a grid emergency at 0.09% in June and 0.21% in July, a calmer posture than neighbouring PJM.
By the numbers
- 92 GW, forecast 2026 summer peak (prior record 85.5GW, Aug 2023).
- ~450 GW, total large-load interconnection requests; >70% data centers.
- 270.82 GW, separate India peak for scale; ERCOT's queue dwarfs its own grid.
- ~10.5 GW, new capacity online since last summer (5GW storage, 4GW solar, 1.5GW gas).
- 0.09% / 0.21%, ERCOT's stated odds of a June / July grid emergency.
Why it matters
Texas is the US test case for whether a market-led grid can absorb AI-scale load without the rationing posture PJM has adopted. ERCOT's confidence rests on fast battery and solar additions; a prolonged heat dome plus thermal outages would test it.
What to watch
- Whether any conservation appeal or EEA is issued during 2026 heat events.
- August battery-storage performance during evening net-peak hours.
- How much of the 450GW queue clears under the new Batch Zero filter.