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EU replaces eight-year steel safeguard on July 1 with tighter regime, cutting import quotas 47% and doubling out-of-quota duty

The EU's steel safeguard measure, in place since 2018, expires June 30 and is replaced by a new overcapacity regulation that cuts duty-free import quotas to 18.3 million tonnes per year and raises the out-of-quota duty from 25% to 50%; South Korea, China, and Taiwan are the most exposed exporters

貿易· active 誰の金か·静かな変化 ·5 論調 · ·rbtfl 更新 2026年6月30日

Summary

The European Union's steel safeguard, in place since 2018 and the maximum eight-year duration allowed under EU and WTO rules, expires June 30 and is replaced July 1 by a new overcapacity regulation. The successor framework cuts duty-free import quotas 47% to 18.3 million tonnes per year and raises the out-of-quota customs duty from 25% to 50% across 30 product categories, two more than the expiring measure. The European Parliament approved the regulation in May and the Council adopted it June 8. Global steel overcapacity is projected to reach 721 million tonnes by 2027, more than five times EU annual consumption.

The split

EU steelmakers and the European Commission argue the measure is a justified response to structural overproduction, mainly in China, that diverts exports into Europe at sub-market prices. Major importing countries, particularly South Korea and Taiwan, which face the steepest quota cuts for cold-rolled coil, are expected to raise WTO compatibility concerns: the 47% quota reduction without a fresh serious injury determination tests the limits of the global safeguard carve-out. The EU-US trade deal adopted in parallel includes a specific US steel exemption, adding an asymmetry that South Korean and Japanese trade officials have already flagged.

By the numbers

  • 47%, reduction in duty-free import quotas under the new regime
  • 18.3 million tonnes, annual duty-free import volume (down from roughly 34.5 million under the expiring measure)
  • 50%, new out-of-quota duty (up from 25%)
  • 30, product categories covered (up from 28)
  • 8 years, duration of the expiring safeguard, the legal maximum under EU and WTO rules
  • 721 million tonnes, projected global steel overcapacity by 2027

Why it matters

Europe is the world's second-largest net steel importer. Halving the duty-free quota and doubling the out-of-quota duty will redirect trade flows, raise steel input costs for EU manufacturers, and reshape supply chains for South Korean, Chinese, and Taiwanese mills. The quota shift is more abrupt than most industry participants expected when the overhaul was proposed in late 2025.

What to watch

  • Whether China, South Korea, or Taiwan challenge the new safeguard at the WTO
  • The smelting and casting rule, which adds to compliance costs for semi-finished steel from October 1
  • Whether quarterly quota management creates supply gaps if Q1 allocation runs out early
  • How EU steelmakers price the new regime into contracts ahead of Q3 delivery windows