Russia's Shahed war scales to record volume, and turns jet-powered
4,335 Geran-type drones launched in April; Alabuga output tops 5,500/month as jet variants outrun Ukraine's defences
Summary
Russia's Shahed Drones campaign against Ukraine has scaled to record volume and changed character. ISIS open-source tracking logged 4,335 Geran-type launches in April 2026, the highest single month of the war, after a 948-drone night on 23–24 March. Ukrainian defence intelligence says Russia plans ~60,000 long-range strike drones plus ~50,000 decoys this year, with domestic Geran output at the Alabuga special economic zone in Tatarstan exceeding 5,500 units a month; Alabuga's footprint has grown past 2.8 million m². Crucially, Russia is shifting to jet-powered variants that fly faster and higher, compressing Ukraine's reaction window and draining interceptor stocks; Moscow intends jet drones to reach ~50% of output. Stray and decoy Gerans crossing into Romania and Poland are turning the saturation war into a NATO-airspace problem.
By the numbers
- 4,335, Geran-type launches in April 2026 (single-month record).
- 948, drones launched the night of 23–24 March 2026 (single-night record).
- ~60,000 + ~50,000, strike drones and decoys Russia plans to build in 2026, per Ukraine.
- 5,500+/month, Geran output at Alabuga, up from 2,738 in all of 2023.
- ~50%, share of output Russia aims to make jet-powered.
Why it matters
Volume plus jet propulsion inverts the cost curve of air defence: every cheap Geran or decoy can soak a far costlier interceptor. It pressures Ukrainian and Western Interceptor Stocks, drives the EW arms race, and, as drones stray into Romania and Poland, drags NATO into the air-policing problem directly.
What to watch
- Whether jet-Geran share rises and how fast Ukraine adapts interceptors and EW.
- Further NATO-airspace incidents and any Article 5 / air-policing escalation.
- Sanctions or strikes targeting Alabuga inputs (chips, engines, optics).