OPEC+が4か月連続の増産を実施、ブレント原油は67.74ドルに下落

続報

1. 2026年7月6日 01:34Z

   The OPEC+ ministerial review on July 5 confirmed a fifth consecutive monthly output increase of 188,000 bpd for August. Brent held near $71-72 on July 6, little changed, as markets had already priced in the decision. Saudi Arabia separately cut its August official selling prices for Asian customers alongside the announcement. The August increase is the first since Hormuz reopened and the first expected to translate directly into additional supply reaching global markets rather than largely compensating for reduced Iranian exports. ↗

2. 2026年7月4日 07:00Z

   Pre-meeting reporting indicates the OPEC+ July 5 conformity group is weighing a full 411,000 bpd increase for August rather than the 188,000 bpd of recent months; OilPrice.com reported members had 'seriously considered' the larger figure before settling on 188,000 bpd for July. The Hormuz de-escalation window expiry overnight July 4-5 and the Khamenei funeral (July 4-9) together add diplomatic uncertainty to the supply outlook. Saudi Aramco's already-published July OSPs, which cut Arab Light for Asia by $6/bbl, signal Riyadh is prioritising market share over price support heading into the August decision. ↗

3. 2026年7月3日 08:00Z

   Brent held above $72.3/bbl on July 3, gaining around 0.6% on thin pre-US Independence Day liquidity as traders priced in the Doha 'positive progress' framing on Hormuz and cautious short-covering. The OPEC+ seven-country conformity meeting on July 5 is expected to approve another 188,000 bpd output increase for August, which would be the fifth consecutive monthly hike. Earlier hikes were largely paper moves while Hormuz was closed; the August decision will be the first likely to translate directly into increased supply reaching global markets. ↗

4. 2026年7月2日 12:00Z

   Brent recovered from its intraday low of $67.74 to $71.71/bbl by midday July 2, before settling near $70.57, as the market digested the Doha talks 'positive progress' framing and short covering kicked in. Saudi Aramco separately published July official selling prices: Arab Light for Asia cut $6/bbl to +$9.50/bbl over Oman/Dubai, European/Mediterranean grades cut $10/bbl, North American grades cut $2/bbl, reflecting the group's intent to preserve market share while the OPEC+ conformity group meets July 5 to assess overproduction compensation. The July 5 meeting covers the seven-country group (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman) that at their June 7 session extended the compensation period for overproducers through December 2026. ↗