Iran's wounded supreme leader misses Day 2 of his father's funeral as doubts grow over who governs Tehran

Summary

Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei did not appear for a second consecutive day at his father's mass state funeral on July 5, leaving three of his brothers, Mostafa, Meysam and Masoud, to pray at the coffin of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the Imam Khomeini Mosalla in Tehran. Mojtaba has not been seen publicly since the February 28 US-Israeli strikes that killed his father, mother and wife; Reuters reported he suffered a disfigured face and injuries to one or both legs. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz publicly named Mojtaba as a target, and Iranian security authorities reportedly blocked him from attending. His three uninjured brothers attended in his place. The funeral runs July 4-9, moving from Tehran to Qom, Mashhad and a stop in Iraq.

The split

Iranian state media frames the absence as a necessary security measure and presents the crowds of an estimated 20 million in Tehran as evidence of national solidarity. Israeli and Western outlets read the same silence as a governance crisis: 120 days without a public appearance or audio statement from the country's supreme leader. Gulf-based analysts point to IRGC General Mohammad Bagheri as the real operational authority, with the constitutional interim council (President Masoud Pezeshkian, the judiciary head and a Guardian Council jurist) functioning as a legal cover. Iranian reformist commentary, circulating outside state channels, notes that Doha ceasefire talks have continued without him, raising the question of who actually signed off on Iran's concessions.

By the numbers

• 120, days since Mojtaba Khamenei's last verified public appearance
• ~20 million, estimated funeral attendance in Tehran on July 4-5, per city authorities
• 3 of 4 sons attended the coffin; the designated successor did not
• July 4-9, full funeral calendar across Tehran, Qom, Mashhad and Iraq
• 3 interim council members hold the supreme leader's constitutional duties under Article 111

Why it matters

Iran is a nuclear-threshold state navigating a ceasefire, frozen assets negotiations, and a 60-day window to formalize a peace deal, all while its legal head is either incapacitated or hiding. Whoever is actually making decisions in Tehran is doing so without public accountability or a clear constitutional mandate. That opacity complicates both the ceasefire track and any eventual successor contest: the IRGC benefits from an invisible leader, reformist factions do not.

What to watch

• Whether Mojtaba appears at Qom or Mashhad stages of the funeral (July 6-9)
• Any statement from Iran's Assembly of Experts on his fitness to serve
• Restart of indirect US-Iran Doha talks after July 9, and whether Iran sends a higher-ranking negotiator
• Any IRGC public endorsement or conditioning of the Islamabad MoU terms

---