伊朗受伤最高领袖缺席父亲国葬第二日,外界对谁在统治德黑兰的疑问持续加深
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊自2月28日起再未公开露面;以色列的威胁和据报道的伤势令其缺席伊朗史上规模最大的国葬,三名兄弟代为在德黑兰棺木旁守礼
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Iran struck three commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz on July 7, and the US responded with strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets and reimposed sanctions, the largest exchange since the January ceasefire. The escalation came while Mojtaba remained absent from the Qom stage of the funeral, with prayers at the Jamkaran Mosque proceeding without the new supreme leader. Iranian state media made no connection between the military escalation and Mojtaba's governance absence; the constitutional interim council was not publicly convened to authorise the Hormuz operation, raising questions about who gave the operational order. ↗
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World leaders confirmed in attendance at the Tehran procession included Russia's former president Dmitry Medvedev, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Iraq's President, Afghanistan's Foreign Minister, a Hamas delegation, Turkey's Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz, Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Georgian President Mikheil Kavelashvili and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon. Putin, Xi Jinping and Erdogan did not attend personally. Representatives from more than 100 countries were present; Western governments sent no delegations. The funeral moves to Qom on July 7 (prayers at the Jamkaran Mosque), Iraq's Najaf and Karbala on July 8, then back to Iran for burial at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad on July 9, the city of Khamenei's birth. Qatar and Pakistan mediators separately confirmed that US and Iranian negotiators made 'positive progress' at Doha technical talks before pausing for the funeral period, and that the next round of talks is set to resume approximately July 11; the Islamabad venue was reported by [your]NEWS citing Qatar, but has not been confirmed by either Washington or Tehran. ↗
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Mojtaba Khamenei was absent for a third consecutive day as the main Tehran procession began July 6 at 6 a.m. local time, with millions attending the coffin's movement along the 10 km route from Imam Hossein Square to Azadi Square. Iranian authorities gave no indication Mojtaba would appear at the subsequent Qom, Mashhad or Iraq stages of the funeral (July 7-9). His continued absence is now the defining story of the funeral: no sitting supreme leader in the history of the Islamic Republic has been invisible for 130 days. The NPR June 29 report noted that Mojtaba's representative to India told media that he would not attend 'for security reasons,' the first quasi-official acknowledgment of the reason from anyone connected to him. President Trump stated on July 4 that Iran was 'dying to settle,' reinforcing US confidence that the nuclear talks will resume after July 9; the talks are being conducted by Iranian Foreign Ministry professionals rather than by the supreme leader's office directly. ↗
概述
伊朗新任最高领袖莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊在7月5日父亲的大规模国葬上连续第二天缺席,由三名兄弟莫斯塔法、米萨姆和马苏德代为在德黑兰霍梅尼礼拜堂的阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊棺木前行礼。莫吉塔巴自2月28日美以联合打击造成其父、母及妻子遇难以来,便再未公开露面。路透社报道称他面部毁容,一条或两条腿受伤。以色列国防部长伊斯雷尔·卡茨公开将莫吉塔巴列为打击目标,伊朗安全机构据报阻止了他出席。未受伤的三名兄弟代其出席。葬礼从7月4日持续至9日,依次在德黑兰、库姆、马什哈德及伊拉克各地举行。
各方分歧
伊朗官方媒体将缺席定性为必要的安全举措,并将德黑兰估计达2,000万人的送葬队伍呈现为国家团结的证明。以色列和西方媒体则将同样的沉默解读为治理危机,国家最高领袖在120天内没有任何公开露面或音频声明。海湾地区分析人士将伊斯兰革命卫队的穆罕默德·巴格里将军视为实际指挥权的掌握者,由大统领佩泽希齐扬、司法长官和宪法监督委员会法学家组成的临时委员会仅是法律上的遮羞布。在官方渠道之外流传的伊朗改革派评论指出,多哈停火谈判在其缺席下仍在持续推进,这令外界不禁发问,究竟是谁批准了伊朗的让步条件。
数字一览
- 120天,莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊最后一次核实公开露面至今的天数
- 约2,000万人,7月4日至5日德黑兰送葬人群估计人数(地方当局数据)
- 4个儿子中有3人出现在棺木旁,指定继承人缺席
- 7月4日至9日,葬礼贯穿德黑兰、库姆、马什哈德及伊拉克的完整日程
- 3名临时委员会成员依据宪法第111条代行最高领袖职权
为何重要
伊朗是核门槛国家,正在停火谈判、冻结资产谈判和60天内正式化和平协议的时间窗口内同时运转,而其法定最高领袖要么已丧失行为能力,要么处于隐匿状态。无论谁在德黑兰实际拍板,都在缺乏公开问责和明确宪法授权的情况下运作。这种不透明性既给停火路径增添了变数,也使任何可能出现的继承人之争愈加复杂。伊斯兰革命卫队从一位隐形领袖中获益,改革派势力则相反。
值得关注的焦点
- 莫吉塔巴是否会在7月6日至9日库姆或马什哈德阶段的葬礼上露面
- 伊朗专家会议是否就其履职能力发表任何声明
- 7月9日后多哈美伊间接谈判重启的情况,以及伊朗是否会派出更高级别的谈判代表
- 伊斯兰革命卫队对伊斯兰堡谅解备忘录条款的公开背书或条件性表态