欧佩克+料批准8月第五次连续增产，油价跌至霍尔木兹封锁后新低

后续进展

1. 2026年7月6日 08:00Z

   Brent crude recovered to the US$71.73-71.88 range in Asian trading on July 6, retracing part of Sunday's post-meeting slide; traders cited China's June crude import data, which came in above recent monthly averages, as the proximate catalyst. Gulf News analysis noted the current Brent level represents a roughly 43% decline from the February wartime peak above US$125/bbl. The structural ceiling remains unchanged: the IEA's 3.8 million bpd H2 2026 surplus model and Saudi Arabia's August OSP cut (Arab Light reduced by US$6/bbl for Asian buyers) lock in downward price pressure regardless of day-session demand signals. Saudi Arabia's US$75-80 fiscal breakeven is now approximately US$4-10 above the prevailing spot price, compressing Riyadh's fiscal surplus calculations for the second half of the year. ↗

2. 2026年7月5日 16:00Z

   The seven-member OPEC+ subgroup approved the fifth consecutive 188,000 bpd increase for August in a unanimous vote on July 5. The cumulative total added since April reaches approximately 940,000 bpd. Brent fell to US$70.50 in post-meeting trading, the lowest level since the day before Iran's February closure of the Strait of Hormuz; the muted price reaction reflects that the decision was fully priced in. The IEA had estimated a global oil surplus of roughly 3.8 million bpd for the second half of 2026, making each OPEC+ increment more price-negative than the equivalent increment would have been before the Hormuz disruption. Kazakhstan and Iraq reaffirmed compensation plans for prior overproduction but both voted in favour of the increase. At the current 188,000 bpd monthly pace, the full voluntary-cut package from April 2023 would be unwound by end-September 2026. ↗

3. 2026年7月4日 10:00Z

   Saudi Aramco moved ahead of Sunday's meeting by publishing revised July official selling prices (OSPs) for Asian customers, cutting Arab Light crude by US$6 per barrel, the largest single-month reduction since 2022, to a premium of US$9.50 over the Oman/Dubai benchmark. European grades were cut by US$10/bbl. The pricing adjustment signals Saudi Arabia is prepared to defend market share over price, pressuring rivals with higher break-even costs. Brent crude settled at approximately US$72/barrel on July 4, above the April trough but well below the US$75-80 Saudi fiscal break-even. ↗