美国要求伊朗公开宣布霍尔木兹海峡开放并承诺停止袭击船只
美国高级官员7月10日向记者透露,华盛顿正要求伊朗发表公开声明,确认霍尔木兹海峡所有通道对航运开放,伊朗不再袭击过往民用船只;Axios报道截止日期定于7月11日周六;美国官员称德黑兰内部权力斗争令达成持久协议十分困难
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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Muscat on July 11 and met Omani FM Badr al-Busaidi. The two issued a joint statement committing to safe passage and a joint working group to determine 'the future administration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the services that will be provided in this regard, and the costs associated with them, in accordance with international standards' (Oman FM). Araghchi told reporters Iran's Hormuz decisions 'would be made jointly with Oman' (Middle East Eye). The US had demanded Iran issue a unilateral public declaration that the strait is open and toll-free. Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in his first statement that 'the closure of the Strait of Hormuz must remain a priority.' The IRGC's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), itself an OFAC-sanctioned entity, requires mandatory insurance for all Hormuz transits, with fees expected once the 60-day MoU grace period expires. CENTCOM issued a 'fact check' on July 9: 'Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz,' citing the facilitation of more than 800 commercial vessels and 380 million barrels of crude through the strait since May (RFE/RL). The GCC collectively condemned Iran's July 7-9 attacks on the Saudi tanker Wadiyan and Qatari tanker Al Rekayyat, invoked UNSC Resolution 2817, and declared any attack on one member 'a direct attack on all GCC states' (GCC). India's Hormuz oil supplies fell from 2.8 million barrels per day in February to 247,000 by April; China drew down its 1.4 billion-barrel strategic reserves to absorb the shock. War-risk insurance rates rose to 2-6% of vessel value, up from near-zero before the conflict, and demand for policies collapsed as visible shipping through the strait approached a halt after July 9 strikes (Lloyd's List, Insurance Journal). ↗
摘要
美国7月10日通过向记者匿名简报的高级官员,要求伊朗发表公开声明,宣布霍尔木兹海峡对所有航运完全开放,并承诺不袭击过往民用船只。Axios报道称公开宣言的截止日期为7月11日周六。彭博社报道称德黑兰内部权力斗争使达成并维持持久协议十分困难,但美国官员表示预计谈判将继续进行。
为何重要
霍尔木兹海峡承担着全球约五分之一的海上石油运输。要求发表公开声明而非接受私下外交保证,提高了赌注,因为任何反悔都将立即被公之于众。美国官员提及的伊朗内部分歧表明,即便发表公开声明,其效力也未必持久,这使任何持久的航运安全协议更加难以实现。
关注点
- 伊朗是否会在7月11日截止日期前发表美方要求的公开声明
- 阿曼斡旋渠道是否仍处于活跃状态或已中断
- 海峡内航运受阻或伊斯兰革命卫队有新动向的任何报道
- 若伊朗错过截止日期,美国将如何回应