美伊7月9日再度交火,德黑兰瞄准巴林、科威特和卡塔尔
美国于周四黎明前对伊朗发动新一轮空袭,德黑兰随即反击巴林、科威特和卡塔尔,这场交火再度威胁到2026年6月达成的临时协议;NATO秘书长马克·吕特称美方攻击「绝对必要」,特朗普威胁实施海上封锁并「接管」哈尔克岛,双方互相指控对方违反谅解备忘录
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后续进展
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US launched new overnight strikes against Iran on July 12; Iran responded with missiles and drones targeting UAE and Oman in addition to Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan, widening the strike pattern to six Gulf and Middle Eastern states; UAE issued missile alerts ↗
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Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed revenge for his father's killing in his first public statement, even as Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived in Oman for Strait of Hormuz talks on July 11, with the Saturday deadline for Iran to declare the strait open approaching ↗
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Iran's supreme national security council chief warned that Israel 'will not be spared' in future Iranian attacks if the United States continues striking Iran's energy and desalination infrastructure, The Jerusalem Post reported. The warning came after Trump publicly floated those sectors as targets. Israeli defence minister Israel Katz also renewed his warning that Israel was ready to confront Iran if needed, raising the prospect of a further widening of the conflict. ↗
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Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plunged on July 10 as US-Iran fighting resumed, Al Jazeera reported, with shipping effectively grinding to a halt. Brent crude held relatively steady, suggesting markets priced in a short-term disruption rather than a sustained closure. CNBC reported Trump said the US would continue technical talks with Iran despite declaring the ceasefire over. CNN confirmed that US and Iran remained deliberately engaged in indirect negotiations even while strikes continued. ↗
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Qatar's foreign ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari denied Iran's claim that Qatar was struck on July 9. 'There haven't been any attacks in Qatar,' he told reporters at a briefing. 'We had some pass overs, but nothing targeting us.' The IRGC had claimed it struck an early warning system in Qatar. Al-Ansari also said the US-Iran exchanges 'put into question' key parts of the MOU but that 'all parties remain engaged in the talks,' and Qatar's PM Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman called Iran's FM Abbas Araghchi urging commitment to diplomacy and implementation of the MOU, signalling Doha has not formally withdrawn as mediator despite being named a target. ↗
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Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply on July 9 as oil markets surged more than 7%, CNBC reported, amid renewed fears of a full closure. The National News also reported that Iran struck Jordan in addition to Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. ↗
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US and Iran exchanged intense new attacks on July 9 afternoon after Trump declared the ceasefire 'over,' NBC News reported. CENTCOM confirmed it launched additional strikes against Iran. War risk insurers began advising shipowners to pause Hormuz transits, the first market signal of a formal advisory suspension in the strait. ↗
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The IRGC announced it struck 85 US military facilities across Bahrain and Kuwait, targeting the Ali Al Salem and Arifjan bases in Kuwait and Juffair and Sheikh Isa in Bahrain, along with a satellite antenna in Qatar and US fuel depots in Bahrain. Kuwait's air defense intercepted 2 ballistic missiles and 13 drones; no casualties or damage were recorded. Bahrain sounded air raid sirens. A Qatari citizen was killed by shrapnel from regional operations. Over two days of US strikes, at least 14 people have been killed and 78 wounded in Iranian cities. Kuwait's foreign ministry issued its 'strongest condemnation and denunciation of the repeated, illicit Iranian attacks.' Qatar's foreign ministry called the strikes 'unacceptable' and 'unjustified attacks' while stressing the need 'to spare the region' their consequences - signalling intent to keep mediating. China's foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning called on both sides to 'follow through on the memorandum of understanding' and resolve disputes through dialogue. July 9 was the date Doha peace talks were scheduled to resume after a pause for the funeral ceremonies of the late supreme leader (July 4-9). Turkey's President Erdogan said his country is 'working to bring the US and Iran to common ground.'
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US cruise missiles struck the Ogtay Khan railway bridge in Iran's Golestan province during the July 9 exchanges, severing the Tehran-Mashhad passenger line. Iran's state railway suspended the route and dispatched passengers onward by road to Mashhad. The bridge is the main overland freight corridor linking Iran to China and Russia via Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. No statement from Beijing or Moscow on the strike targeting their shared trade artery. ↗
摘要
美国于7月9日清晨对伊朗发动新一轮空袭,德黑兰随即反击巴林、科威特和卡塔尔,这场地区性交火再度威胁到本应终结战争的2026年6月临时协议。美国中央司令部表示,此次打击旨在「进一步削弱伊朗威胁霍尔木兹海峡航行自由的能力」。本次交火发生在7月8日第二波打击和特朗普在北约安卡拉峰会宣布停火「终结」之后。
特朗普威胁恢复海上封锁、发动更多打击并「接管」哈尔克岛。NATO秘书长马克·吕特称美国的攻击「绝对必要」。双方互相指控对方违反6月谅解备忘录。海湾新闻将局势描述为停火崩溃后战争重新点燃,霍尔木兹海峡航运和全球石油供应面临新的威胁。
分歧视角
美联社将7月9日的交火定性为「再度威胁」临时协议的不断升级炮火的延续。为伊朗近邻UAE读者撰稿的海湾新闻将其描述为停火全面崩溃,并突出霍尔木兹供应风险。半岛电视台对备忘录崩溃的责任平等归咎于双方。福克斯新闻将NATO的背书和石油制裁取消置于首位。
伊朗的立场根本不同。伊斯兰革命卫队将海湾打击定性为对美国首先轰炸布什尔、恰巴哈尔和班达尔阿巴斯违反MOU的对等回应。伊朗官方媒体将对巴林和科威特的打击呈现为仅针对美国军事基础设施,而非海湾国家本身。
海湾内部存在明显分歧。并非战争当事方的科威特和巴林在谴责针对其主权领土的攻击的同时,也强调希望降级。卡塔尔的处境更为微妙:谴责攻击「不当」,但刻意回避了可能封闭其调停者角色的措辞。卡塔尔曾主持6-7月多哈会谈,而下一轮会谈恰好定于7月9日,即伊朗打击卡塔尔的当天。
域外方面,中国外交部发言人毛宁呼吁双方「履行谅解备忘录」,避免使用武力,将此次交火定性为双方共同失败。俄罗斯将自己定位为潜在的备选调停者。土耳其总统埃尔多安表示安卡拉正「努力将美国和伊朗引导至共同基础」。印度未点名任何一方,呼吁「通过对话和外交实现和平」。
数字说话
- 3,伊朗反击中瞄准的海湾阿拉伯国家: 巴林、科威特、卡塔尔
- 85,伊斯兰革命卫队声称在巴林和科威特打击的美国军事设施数量
- 14,美国两天打击中在伊朗城市造成的死亡人数(78人受伤)
- 2枚弹道导弹和13架无人机,科威特防空系统7月9日拦截(无人员伤亡)
- 1,因地区行动弹片而身亡的卡塔尔平民
- 1,被取消的制裁: 美国在交火恢复后撤销了伊朗的石油制裁豁免
- 7月4-9日,使多哈和平谈判暂停的葬礼期间
为何重要
7月9日的交火将7月8日那轮战斗的地理范围进一步扩大,表明双方都不愿意在不对海湾国家实施报复的情况下承受打击,提高了在其领土上驻扎美国基地的国家被进一步拖入非其所选冲突的风险。卡塔尔的处境尤为微妙:在遭到打击的同时仍担任美国与伊朗之间的调停者。NATO安卡拉峰会在盟国公开支持美国军事行动的情况下落幕,缩小了降级外交的空间。
关注要点
- 卡塔尔是否正式宣告退出调停者角色,这将关闭多哈渠道
- 6月谅解备忘录是否被任何一方正式宣告无效,或是否提出新框架
- 巴林和科威特的外交回应,以及是否援引与美国的防务条约义务
- 若多哈陷入停滞,土耳其或俄罗斯能否建立替代外交渠道
- 美国中央司令部是否将伊朗打击目标清单扩展到霍尔木兹相关场所之外