印度派州长而非莫迪出席哈梅内伊7月4至9日国葬,外交参席阵容逐渐成形
印度于6月29日确认,比哈尔邦长中将赛义德·阿塔·哈斯纳因和外交国务部长帕比特拉·马尔格里塔将代表新德里出席遇刺最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊的国葬,葬礼将于7月4至9日在德黑兰、库姆、马什哈德和伊拉克举行;巴基斯坦总理谢里夫及俄罗斯、中国和多个中亚国家代表团预计出席
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The largest day of the Tehran funeral ceremonies began July 6 at 6 a.m. local time, with the main procession carrying the coffin along the 10 km route from Imam Hossein Square to Azadi Square ahead of the prayer ceremony. Millions gathered in Tehran for what Iranian authorities described as the culmination of the capital's mourning events; the procession is set to continue toward Qom, roughly 120 km south of Tehran, on July 7. Mojtaba Khamenei remained absent for a third consecutive day, with no indication of any planned appearance at the Qom, Mashhad or Iraq stages. US-Iran technical talks in Doha are paused until after the funeral procession concludes; working groups formed under the June 17 Islamabad MoU are continuing implementation discussions independently. Separately, President Trump said Iran was 'dying to settle' in remarks published July 4, reflecting US confidence that the nuclear talks will resume formally after July 9. ↗
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New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was absent for a second consecutive day at his father's state funeral on July 5, with three of his brothers, Mostafa, Meysam and Masoud, praying at the coffin at the Imam Khomeini Mosalla in Tehran. CNBC reported that Mojtaba's face was disfigured and one or both legs were injured in the February 28 strikes; Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz publicly named Mojtaba as a target, and Iranian security authorities reportedly barred him from attending. France 24 framed the 120-day absence as a governance crisis: Mojtaba has communicated only through written statements since February and has never appeared in audio or video. The constitutional interim council of President Pezeshkian, the judiciary head and a Guardian Council jurist continues to exercise the supreme leader's duties under Article 111. Gulf-based analysis noted that IRGC General Mohammad Bagheri holds real operational authority while the interim council provides legal cover. ↗
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Mass public mourning ceremonies opened in Tehran on July 4 with millions attending. Iranian authorities reported the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will not attend his father's funeral in person, citing an Israeli threat to assassinate him if he appears publicly; Times of Israel reported Iran barred Mojtaba from attending out of fear Israel could target him, making him the only major figure absent from his own father's state funeral. Among those confirmed attending: Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif, Turkish VP Cevdet Yilmaz, Iraqi President Nizar Amidi, Chinese and Russian delegations. No Western government sent a representative. Iran's diplomacy with the US remains formally paused until after the funeral procession concludes on July 9. ↗
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Ceremonies began July 3 as Khamenei's casket was placed on public display. CNN reported that new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father after the Assembly of Experts elected him on March 8-9, is believed to have been seriously wounded in the February 28 strikes; he has remained in hiding, communicating only through written statements and never appearing publicly. Iranian negotiators left Doha on July 2, pausing indirect US-Iran talks until after the funeral; Qatar indicated discussions will resume after July 9. Iran's security apparatus mobilised Basij militia forces across Tehran in one of the country's largest-ever domestic security operations ahead of the mass gatherings. ↗
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Euronews reported Tehran is preparing for what could be the largest state funeral in recorded history, with the city's mayor projecting roughly 20 million attendees in Tehran alone on July 4-5. Iran International and security analysts noted that foreign dignitaries linked to Hezbollah and the Houthis have expressed concern about attending, citing Israel's threat to target any new Supreme Leader and the precedent of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran during President Raisi's funeral in July 2024. ↗
摘要
伊朗于6月13日宣布,因战争推迟四个月后,遭美以联合空袭于2月28日遇难的最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊的国葬将于2026年7月4至9日在德黑兰、库姆、马什哈德和伊拉克分阶段举行。佩泽什基安向印度总理莫迪等各国政府首脑发出个人邀请,莫迪于6月29日确认因同期预定赴印度尼西亚、新西兰和澳大利亚的出访而无法出席。印度将由比哈尔邦长中将赛义德·阿塔·哈斯纳因和外交国务部长帕比特拉·马尔格里塔代表。预计巴基斯坦总理沙赫巴兹·谢里夫将亲自参加,俄罗斯、中国、伊拉克、阿富汗、叙利亚、黎巴嫩及多个中亚国家代表团也将出席。伊朗当局正在为沿仿照1989年霍梅尼葬礼模式规划的礼仪路线迎接约3500万名国内参加者做准备。
分歧
印度媒体聚焦于莫迪缺席以及印度将派出的具体官员,将其解读为新德里在伊朗战争期间保持审慎中立背景下维持与德黑兰实务关系而不将其提升至政府首脑级别的精心信号。伊朗官方媒体未就莫迪缺席发表评论。停火背景塑造了整个外交盘算:巴基斯坦在调解伊斯兰堡基本协议后出席,俄罗斯和中国作为战时盟友出席,西方北约成员缺席。
数字
- 2026年7月4至9日,横跨伊朗和伊拉克的六天葬礼日程
- 2026年2月28日,哈梅内伊遇刺日期
- 3500万,伊朗当局为之准备的国内参加者人数
- 1989年,霍梅尼葬礼(此次准备参照的年份)
- 2,代替莫迪出席的印度官员(比哈尔邦长哈斯纳因和国务部长马尔格里塔)
重要性
哈梅内伊是中东历史上任期第二长的国家元首,也是伊朗核计划和地区民兵网络的缔造者。遇刺四个月后举行的国葬是战后外交格局重组得以在一处实体呈现的首次机会。谁亲自参加、以何种级别出席,将揭示哪些政府正在投资于佩泽什基安政府的重建议程,哪些政府在等待核与制裁问题明朗化后再表态。
关注点
- 普京或习近平是否亲自出席或派遣代表团。
- 是否有欧洲国家政府首脑不顾联盟义务出席。
- 葬礼在大规模集会情况下能否平安进行,不出现安全事件。
- 莫迪7月在印度尼西亚、新西兰和澳大利亚的行程是否印证或质疑缺席的官方解释。