The largest oil supply disruption on record
Brent peaked near $118 in March; post-ceasefire normalisation has it at $75.57 by June 24, but a 500-vessel queue and the Qatar LNG explosion keep markets unsettled
Summary
After US-Israeli strikes on Iran beginning 28 February, Iran restricted nearly all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, stranding Gulf crude and LNG. Brent rose from ~$72 to above $118 by early March; producers shut in roughly 11 mb/d by May as storage filled, the IEA's largest-ever recorded supply disruption. The US and Iran sign 14-point memorandum to end the war of 17 June sent Brent below $80; a brief Hormuz re-closure on June 20 (Iran citing Lebanon strikes) spiked it back before the strait re-opened within hours. By June 24, Brent traded at $75.57, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a Q4 floor around $80 as tanker queues clear. More than 20 tankers crossed post-ceasefire; 500-plus vessels remain queued. The concurrent Explosion at Qatar's Barzan gas facility kills 13, slashes LNG exports is suppressing LNG normalisation independent of the Hormuz situation.
The split
The IEA and energy traders read the disruption as effectively over, normalisation is underway. Brookings argues strategic reserves, demand destruction and OPEC spare capacity blunted the shock throughout, and that the $118 peak was partly speculative. Tehran frames re-opening Hormuz as a sovereign concession, not a defeat, and retains the re-closure threat as primary leverage over the Lebanon clause. Gulf producers , Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, suffered their own shut-ins as vessels backed up; they have a structural interest in rapid normalisation that aligns with, but does not depend on, the ceasefire's durability.
By the numbers
- $118, Brent peak (early March 2026).
- $79.25, Brent June 22, 2026 (first post-ceasefire read).
- $75.57, Brent June 24, 2026.
- ~$80, Goldman Sachs Q4 2026 floor forecast.
- 11.3 mb/d, peak supply disruption (May; IEA).
- 500+, tankers queued at Hormuz post-ceasefire.
- 20+, tankers transiting Hormuz June 22-24.
Why it matters
Roughly 20% of seaborne oil and LNG transit the Strait of Hormuz. The closure removed ~10 mb/d at peak and reset global fuel and fertilizer prices, transmitting into freight and central-bank policy. De-escalation is real but fragile: the Explosion at Qatar's Barzan gas facility kills 13, slashes LNG exports has separately cut global LNG spot supply ~20%; the Lebanon clause gives Iran leverage to re-close; and 500 tankers queued simultaneously cannot exit without weeks of managed transit, capping the pace of price recovery.
What to watch
- Whether the tanker queue clears without incident over the next four to six weeks.
- Whether Lebanon triggers a further Hormuz interruption.
- Whether the Qatar LNG explosion recovery shortfall lifts Asian LNG spot prices through Q3.
- OPEC+ July output decision and its interaction with post-disruption market rebalancing.