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Hormuz reopening faster than expected raises oil glut risk as China cuts imports

Traffic through the Strait reached roughly 32-42% of pre-war normal by early July; Morgan Stanley cut oil forecasts twice in two weeks, citing a supply overhang as Middle Eastern crude floods back into a market weakened by Chinese demand softness

エネルギー·海運· disrupted 誰の金か·静かな変化 ·7 論調 · ·rbtfl 更新 2026年7月3日

Summary

The Strait of Hormuz, closed to normal shipping since Iran's war with the US in spring 2026, is reopening faster than expected under the 60-day interim MoU signed in mid-June. IMF PortWatch data from June 28 showed 27 ships transiting daily, 32% of the pre-crisis norm of 84, and Morgan Stanley reported 35 tankers on July 2, the first time traffic approached pre-war daily norms in a single session. The bank cut Brent crude forecasts twice in two weeks. HSBC warned of a "mini-glut" as a supply overhang of Middle Eastern crude enters a market already weakened by China slashing imports. Brent holds near $68.5/bbl. The 60-day interim deal expires around mid-August, and US sanctions relief for Iran ends August 21, creating overlapping pressure points before any permanent settlement.

The split

Al Jazeera and Gulf media covered the reopening as economic relief while noting OPEC+'s July 5 meeting will determine how fast the additional unwind of voluntary cuts proceeds. US financial media focused on the demand side: Morgan Stanley's forecast cuts and the China slowdown are the primary bearish driver, with the Hormuz recovery accelerating what was already a price-negative picture. Maritime and shipping outlets concentrated on war-risk insurance, still 8x pre-crisis with six P&I clubs withdrawn, which continues to deter many commercial operators from transiting without naval escort. Iranian state media presented the convoy system as evidence that Tehran retains de facto co-sovereignty over the waterway.

By the numbers

  • 27 ships/day (June 28, IMF PortWatch) vs ~84/day pre-crisis = 32% recovery.
  • 35 tankers transited July 2 (Morgan Stanley), first time near pre-war normal in a single day.
  • Brent crude: ~$68.5/bbl, down 40% from wartime peak.
  • War-risk insurance: 8.0x pre-crisis; 6 P&I clubs still without cover.
  • 60-day interim deal and August 21 US sanctions-relief expiry: the twin countdown clocks.
  • OPEC+ July 5 meeting: next output decision.

Why it matters

The oil market is inverting its war-scarcity logic: the same reopening that should relieve the price shock is combining with Chinese demand softness to produce a downward price spiral. Saudi Arabia, whose revenue model depends on $80+ Brent to balance the budget, faces a double bind: OPEC quota hikes it approved when Hormuz was closed are now deliverable, but delivering them into a glut accelerates the price decline. The August 21 sanctions deadline means the market cannot price a stable return to normal before that question is resolved.

What to watch

  • OPEC+ July 5 meeting: will the group pause the monthly 188,000 bpd hike?
  • August 21 sanctions relief expiry: does Washington extend or let Iran re-enter isolation?
  • Whether war-risk insurance normalises, the remaining barrier to full commercial transit.
  • China import data for July: the single most important demand signal for H2 2026 oil prices.