ドーハ協議は「前向きな進展」で終了、核問題は議題に上がらず、ホルムズ緊張緩和は7月4-5日に失効

続報

1. 2026年7月8日 12:00Z

   The July 7-8 escalation cycle: Iran struck Qatar's LNG tanker Al Rekayat (engine room fire) and Saudi Arabia's supertanker Wedyan in the Strait of Hormuz on July 7; CENTCOM responded with 80+ strikes on Iranian air defenses, radar, and anti-ship missile sites; the IRGC then launched missiles and drones at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain (IRGC claims 85 targets hit and 8 bases 'destroyed'; Kuwait confirmed its air defenses intercepted the attack). Trump at the NATO Ankara summit press conference declared the Islamabad ceasefire 'over' and called Iranian leaders 'scum,' threatening more strikes; he added he did not want to deal with them. Qatar summoned Iran's deputy ambassador, called the Al Rekayat strike 'an unacceptable assault on the security and safety of international navigation and global energy supplies, and a grave and blatant violation of international law,' and demanded Iran 'immediately cease' attacks on shipping, while simultaneously confirming July 11 Doha talks remain on. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Jordan issued a joint condemnation, all holding Iran 'fully responsible.' No Chinese-flagged vessels were struck in any of the July 7-8 exchanges. Iran's PressTV framed the full cycle as a US violation of the Islamabad MoU, not an Iranian escalation. Mojtaba Khamenei issued no statement on any stage of the exchange. ↗

2. 2026年7月7日 04:32Z

   Iran struck three commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz on July 7 as US President Trump was arriving at the NATO Ankara summit. The US responded with strikes against more than 80 Iranian targets and reimposed sanctions, the largest exchange since the January ceasefire. Trump condemned NATO allies at the summit for what Newsweek described as insufficient support during the US-Iran war. The Guardian Council convened in Tehran to begin formal succession proceedings while Khamenei's body was en route to Mashhad for burial. The escalation occurred without any public statement from Mojtaba Khamenei or the constitutional interim council, deepening the unresolved question of who authorised the IRGC's Hormuz operation. The July 11 Doha round remains confirmed by both Qatar and US officials. ↗

3. 2026年7月5日 10:00Z

   Khamenei's state funeral procession moved to Qom on July 5, the second stop in the seven-day sequence after the Tehran Grand Mosalla opening. At the Tehran ceremony, a performer before hundreds of thousands of mourners called explicitly for US President Trump's death, the most direct such statement from a state-adjacent platform. Multiple vessels using the Oman-coordinated southern Hormuz corridor turned back on July 5, citing IRGC harassment. Mojtaba Khamenei remained absent from all public funeral stages; US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth stated publicly that Mojtaba is 'wounded and likely disfigured.' Iran confirmed the next round of US-Iran talks for July 11, after the Mashhad burial on July 9. ↗

4. 2026年7月4日 09:00Z

   Khamenei's funeral opened July 4 at Tehran's Grand Mosalla; more than 100 countries sent representatives, with all Western nations absent. Confirmed attendees: Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif; China's He Wei, NPC Standing Committee vice chairman (Politburo-level representation absent); Turkey VP Cevdet Yilmaz; Iraq President Nizar Amidi and Kurdistan PM Nechirvan Barzani; India MoS Pabitra Margherita; senior officials from Russia and the Afghan Taliban government. Euronews noted the attendance map confirmed Iran's non-Western alignment; no EU member state or NATO country sent a senior official. The funeral schedule runs July 4-9, with burial in Mashhad on July 9, and the next round of US-Iran talks is now formally blocked until at least July 9. ↗

5. 2026年7月4日 00:01Z

   The one-week Hormuz de-escalation window agreed June 29 expired overnight July 4-5. As of July 4 morning, no new strikes or closures were reported. Iranian state media described the strait as 'open but under full Iranian management'; the IRGC reiterated it would not tolerate ships using the Oman-coordinated corridor. The next round of US-Iran talks cannot begin before July 9, the date of Khamenei's burial in Mashhad. OPEC's conformity group meets July 5 to decide the August output increase, the first that would translate to actual supply if Hormuz holds. ↗

6. 2026年7月3日 06:00Z

   A container ship ran aground on July 3 while using the Oman-coordinated southern Hormuz corridor. The IRGC did not call it an accident, framing it as proof that ships should use only Iran-designated routes or face 'an immediate and firm response.' Iran International reported the IRGC has deployed special forces to track vessels using the Oman corridor. The Iranian foreign ministry separately stated: 'The Strait of Hormuz remains under the total oversight and management of Iran throughout the coming 30 days.' ↗

7. 2026年7月2日 20:00Z

   IRGC Gen. Ahmad Vahidi emerged from hiding, his first confirmed public appearance since February 8, attending Khamenei funeral planning sessions and sitting beside the casket. Vahidi is described as part of the small clique in direct contact with Mojtaba Khamenei and a key voice shaping Iran's hardline negotiating stance on Hormuz. Separately, Iranian officials confirmed Mojtaba Khamenei is unlikely to appear at his father's funeral because authorities 'cannot guarantee his safety'; he has not been photographed since the war began. ↗

8. 2026年7月2日 12:00Z

   Iran confirmed the Khamenei state funeral will run July 4-9: July 4-5 lying in state at Tehran Mosalla, July 6 procession through Tehran, July 7 ceremonies in Qom, July 8 in Najaf and Karbala (Iraq), July 9 burial at the shrine of Imam Reza in Mashhad. The 60-day MoU clock started June 17, placing the deadline at approximately August 16, compressing the next-round timeline to the week of July 14-21. ↗

9. 2026年7月2日 10:00Z

   Israel's Netanyahu avoided criticising Trump's deal publicly, instead claiming war goals had been 'achieved' and that Israel retains 'full freedom of action' on Iran's nuclear programme. He told reporters: 'This agreement was made by the United States, by the president of the United States.' A Saudi-UAE split hardened: Riyadh supports accommodation, while the UAE's Sultan Al Jaber (ADNOC) publicly said the strait 'needs to be open unconditionally,' rejecting any Iranian toll or joint control regime. ↗

10. 2026年7月2日 09:00Z

    Even as Qatar announced 'positive progress,' the IRGC renewed Hormuz threats within hours, warning ships away from Oman's southern corridor and reiterating it would formally close the strait if the talks failed to secure sole Iranian navigation control. The IRGC also publicly rebuffed the US-proposed military hotline for Hormuz incident management, with IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi dismissing it. Iran's parliament National Security Commission secretary Behnam Saeedi warned 'any miscalculation in this maritime area will be met with a decisive response.' ↗