IMO estimates 80 mines block Hormuz's historic shipping lane as clearance operations begin

Summary

The International Maritime Organization estimated on Friday, 26 June, that approximately 80 mines are deployed in the Traffic Separation Scheme, the traditional central shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz that handles roughly 20 percent of global oil flows. The estimate quantifies, for the first time, the scale of explosive contamination left by the Iran war and explains why commercial shipping has not returned to its historic routing despite the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding ceasefire. Two flanking corridors have formed in place of the historic lane: one runs close to Oman's shore, coordinated by the US Navy and Joint Maritime Information Center, while a separate corridor veers toward the Iranian coast under Tehran's control. The UKMTO raised the regional threat level to "substantial" on June 27 following the ناقلة النفط العملاقة كيكو تتعرض لضربة في مضيق هرمز، والوكالة البريطانية ترفع مستوى التهديد إلى 'كبير' and separately warned mariners of the presence of floating mines. Mine-clearance operations by a multinational naval force are ongoing, but the IMO gave no timeline for restoring the central lane.

Why it matters

With 80 mines estimated in the main channel, the strait's full capacity, roughly 17-21 million barrels per day of crude and products, cannot be restored quickly. Western maritime security sources cite a 40-to-50 day clearance window before the industry is confident enough to return to the historic lane, keeping the إغلاق مضيقين رئيسيين يدفع أسعار شحن الحاويات إلى الارتفاع بحدة premium in place and sustaining pressure on global energy prices even after a formal ceasefire holds. Traffic has recovered to roughly 50% of pre-crisis levels on the flanking corridors; full normalisation requires clearing the central channel.