五级超级台风巴比逼近仍在从4月辛拉古中恢复的关岛和北马里亚纳群岛

后续进展

1. 2026年7月6日 14:00Z

   President Trump approved a FEMA Emergency Declaration for the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (FEMA EM-3648-GU), covering Saipan, Tinian, Rota and the Northern Islands; CNMI is now responding to two overlapping FEMA declarations, the second being the still-active Major Disaster Declaration DR-3645 from Typhoon Sinlaku in April. On Guam, roughly 25% of the Guam Power Authority's major transmission lines were operational by 10 a.m. local time July 6; critical infrastructure including Andersen AFB, Camp Blaz and Guam Memorial Hospital remained powered. A cargo vessel, MV Mariana, capsized in the storm's outer bands; one crew member's body was recovered and five others remain missing. Rota's casualty count remains unconfirmed as communication infrastructure is down; full damage assessment cannot begin until conditions allow access. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration on July 6 issued guidance anticipating sea warnings by July 9 and possible land warnings by July 10; the CWA's preferred scenario shows the storm passing north of Taiwan, with Yilan County at highest exposure probability (49%). Landfall on China's Fujian or Zhejiang coast is possible July 11-12 if the storm does not recurve. ↗

2. 2026年7月6日 08:00Z

   Super Typhoon Bavi made a direct strike on Rota at approximately 8 a.m. local time (ChST) on July 6, confirmed by GHS/OCD JIC Release No. 11 and France24. Peak intensity at landfall: maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (290 km/h), central pressure 901 mb, making it one of the strongest typhoons to strike US territory on record. NWS meteorologist Edwin Montvila confirmed Rota was 'currently already encountering catastrophic wind'; the NWS issued an Extreme Wind Warning for Rota, the highest-tier warning reserved for imminent catastrophic conditions. Pre-storm assessment: most of Rota 'will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer'; many non-concrete homes expected to suffer 'total roof failure and wall collapse'; nearly all trees to be snapped or uprooted; power outages lasting weeks to months. Storm surge on Rota of up to 35 feet (10.7 m). Guam (Condition of Readiness 1) also reporting widespread power outages, flights cancelled and port operations suspended as the southern eyewall passed. After clearing the Marianas, JTWC forecast track carries the storm west-northwest toward Taiwan and eastern China, with a potential approach around July 10. No casualty figures have been officially confirmed; damage assessment teams cannot access Rota while winds remain dangerous. ↗

3. 2026年7月5日 16:00Z

   GHS/OCD Advisory No. 5 (issued July 5, 2026 local time) confirmed Bavi deepened to a central pressure of 910 hPa with sustained winds of 257 km/h (160 mph). Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Guam; tropical storm force winds are forecast to begin Sunday evening (Guam local time) with typhoon-force winds from early Monday morning. Coastal inundation could reach 15 feet near the storm center. Evacuations are underway from low-lying coastal areas and remaining Sinlaku temporary shelters. Bavi is forecast to pass between Rota and Guam in the early hours of Monday July 6 local time, before continuing north of Saipan and Tinian. ↗