Nvidia restarts China sales: H200 cleared with a 25% US cut, flow still thin
Jensen Huang says orders are in and manufacturing is 'restarting'; BIS revised the license policy, but as of mid-2026 only a small number of H200s have actually shipped
Summary
Washington has loosened the export line for Nvidia in China: Commerce/BIS revised its license-review policy and the administration cleared the more capable H200 for China, conditioned on the US taking a 25% cut of those sales. CEO Jensen Huang says Nvidia has received China purchase orders and is "restarting" manufacturing, with preparations to ship on the order of 82,000 H200 GPUs. But the flow is thin: as of mid-2026 only a "small number" of H200s had been approved, and Nvidia still books zero China data-center compute in its guidance. This reverses the earlier standoff without resolving it, Beijing's own posture and licensing pace remain the gates.
By the numbers
- 25%, US revenue cut on cleared H200 China sales.
- ~82,000, H200 GPUs Nvidia is reported preparing for China.
- "Small number", H200 units actually approved as of mid-2026.
- $0, China data-center compute in Nvidia's current outlook.
Why it matters
China is the largest single piece of upside Nvidia leaves on the table. A revenue-sharing export regime is a novel instrument, taxing strategic exports rather than banning them, and how fast volume actually flows, plus whether Beijing steers buyers to domestic chips, will move both Nvidia's numbers and the chip-war trajectory.
What to watch
- Actual H200 shipment volume versus the ~82,000 prepared.
- Beijing's signals on buying US chips vs. Huawei/domestic alternatives.
- Whether any China revenue re-enters Nvidia's guidance.